11.08.202608:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: S&P 500 (SPX): consolidation at record highs

The S&P 500 continues its steady ascent, consolidating in early Monday's Asian session just below the all-time high reached above 7,780.0 and near 7,745.0. The market is digesting the implications of weak US labor market data, which reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike, while lingering geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East is limiting investor risk appetite.

The key event of the week will be US inflation data, which could determine the index's next move.

Last week was marked by an impressive rally: the S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain since April, closing near the record level of 7,748.0. The index rose by approximately 3.7% from the previous week's closing price and currently holds above 7,740.0.

Key growth drivers:

Repricing of Fed rate expectations. The weak July NFP report (-23,000 jobs vs. +80,000 expected) and downward revisions to June data to +20,000 fundamentally altered market expectations. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September declined, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets. Soft employment data is typically read as a "green light" for the Fed to maintain its pause.

Strong earnings season. The corporate earnings season significantly exceeded expectations. 87% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings above estimates, a record high. Second-quarter profit growth accelerated to 33% from 25% in the first quarter, one of the highest readings outside post-recession recovery periods. All 11 sectors are showing positive momentum, with 8 of them reporting double-digit growth.

Recovery of the AI trade. Following June's correction, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by 9.24% for the week, confirming renewed interest in the AI sector. Tech giants (Microsoft, Amazon) confirmed that aggressive AI infrastructure investments are delivering tangible financial returns.

Reduced geopolitical tensions. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of planned strikes on Iran created a positive backdrop. However, lingering uncertainty (Iran has set conditions for reopening the strait) continues to weigh on the market.

Factors of caution:

• Investors are awaiting CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) data, which could significantly shift Fed rate expectations. If the data comes in strong, the probability of a September rate hike could rebound, pressuring equities.
• Despite the easing of geopolitical tensions, direct US-Iran talks have yet to take place, keeping the risk of escalation alive.

Brief technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 maintains bullish momentum, consolidating above key moving averages.

On the daily chart:

• The EMA50 is around 7,480.0, acting as the nearest strong dynamic support. The index is holding firmly above this level, confirming the continuation of the short-term bullish trend.
• The EMA200 is at 7,085.0, creating a key support zone alongside the 50-period weekly average at 7,000.0. The convergence of the 50- and 200-period EMAs is sometimes viewed by technical traders as an early "golden cross" signal. However, the situation remains far from that at this point.
• The RSI (14) is in the 64-65 range, indicating moderate upside momentum without signs of overbought conditions (above 70). This leaves room for further gains.
• The OsMA histogram remains in positive territory (value 46), confirming the continuation of bullish momentum.
• The Stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, confirming strong bullish momentum.

Key levels:

• Resistance: 7,780.0 (local high), 7,800.0 (psychological level), 7,850.0 (upper boundary of the ascending channel and the next significant barrier), 8,000.0.
• Support: 7,700.0-7,690.0 (local support), 7,635.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 7,610.0-7,580.0 (next local support and former resistance levels).

Key events to watch

Conclusion and recommendations

The S&P 500 is at record highs, where a strong fundamental backdrop (record earnings season, upward profit revisions) meets macroeconomic uncertainty (inflation data, Fed rate expectations). The key event of the week will be Wednesday's CPI data, which could determine whether the index can hold above 7,800.0 and continue toward 7,900.0-8,000.0 or reverse toward the support zone of 7,635.0-7,580.0.

As long as fundamental indicators continue to improve, the S&P 500 has potential for further gains. Goldman Sachs, for example, forecasts the index reaching 8,000.0 by year-end if current trends persist.

For short-term traders:

• Consider long positions on a sustained breakout above 7,780.0, with targets at 7,800.0–7,900.0 and a stop-loss order below 7,680.0.
• Short positions should only be considered on a break below 7,680.0, confirmed by fundamental factors (strong CPI data), with a stop-loss order above 7,780.0.
• Closely monitor CPI inflation data and Fed officials' comments.

For medium-term investors:

• Maintain a constructive stance given the strong fundamental backdrop, but exercise caution ahead of inflation data.
• A potential pullback to 7,520.0–7,610.0 could be used to add to long positions if the positive fundamental backdrop remains intact.
• Consider that Goldman Sachs projects the S&P 500 at 8,000.0 by year-end if current trends persist.

Risk management:

• Remain cautious ahead of the CPI release – volatility could be high.
• Strictly adhere to stop-losses – a break of key levels could trigger significant moves.
• Monitor CPI inflation data and Fed officials' comments, which remain key drivers.
• Note that in the event of weak CPI data, the probability of a breakout above 7,800 increases significantly.