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A hint of de-escalation in the Middle East was enough to wake the S&P 500 from its slumber: the broad index moved within arm's reach of its all-time high, the Nasdaq Composite gained over 2%, and the Dow Jones notched its 22nd record close of the year, the first new high in a month.
Dynamics of US stock indices
The formal catalyst for the rally was US President Donald Trump's remark that he had called off a large strike on Iran to give talks a chance. Tehran immediately denied any planned talks with Washington, but investors bought the hope first and dissected details later. Brent reacted as expected, collapsing by nearly 5% on hopes of a restoration of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The deeper story, however, is internal to the equity market. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the Magnificent Seven mega-caps added $678.3bn of market value in a single day and $1.09tn over two days. The three-day total of $1.77tn was a record for the cohort. Earnings season helped: S&P 500 earnings are up about 29% y/y, and 86% of constituents beat Wall Street estimates, notching the best beat rate in five years, per Bloomberg Intelligence.
Citadel Securities argues that the forces that pushed US shares to records remain "intact" even after a retail-led speculative reset. The market is shifting from a flow-driven environment to one where earnings, corporate demand, and macro fundamentals matter more. Valuations look more attractive, and buybacks should accelerate as blackout windows close.
S&P 500 and momentum basket dynamics
Morgan Stanley sees a style rotation underway. After one of the worst momentum sell-offs in history, capital is moving out of chipmakers and into so-called quality names with stable earnings histories, such as insurers and medical-equipment manufacturers. The Goldman Sachs momentum basket is instructive: it has fallen by 35% from its June peak but remains up roughly 9.4% year-to-date, roughly in line with the S&P 500.
So the picture is interesting: headline indices look serene, while a genuine storm of leadership change is happening underneath. The question is whether the Iran-US pause has given investors a durable reason to cheer, or only a transient respite.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 is within arm's reach of record highs. A confirmed break above 7,620 would justify adding to long positions initiated earlier. Upside targets remain 7,670 and 7,870.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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