2025 has marked a rare moment in financial history—a time when two opposing asset classes have begun to rise simultaneously. Gold, traditionally a safe haven against risk, and stocks, symbolizing a bet on economic growth, have suddenly moved in the same direction. This unusual coincidence has prompted the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to publicly warn the markets: we are witnessing "explosive behavior" in both asset categories—and this could mean much more than just a good year for investors.
Such a combination contradicts the classic logic of financial markets, where gold rises when stocks fall and vice versa. Now, both curves are pointing upwards. The main concern for the BIS is that if two opposing forces move in the same direction, it indicates that the balancing mechanism is disrupted. And where balance is broken, risk inevitably accumulates.
Gold is finishing the year with an increase of about 60%—the best result in almost half a century. However, what is more important than the number itself is what lies behind it. Previously, gold's price growth was almost synonymous with crisis expectations, but 2025 changes the formula: gold is being bought not only out of fear but also in hopes of profit.
Demand from central banks has notably increased, especially in countries looking to reduce their dependence on the dollar and diversify reserves. This factor provides fundamental support for gold.
Retail and institutional investment flows are also playing a significant role. Gold ETFs are reporting record inflows, and individual investors are actively buying the metal amid uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and a lack of confidence in traditional safe assets such as long-term government bonds.
The geopolitical backdrop adds intensity: the world is facing a series of risk events, instability in key regions, a resurgence of energy conflicts, and rising tensions in trade relations among major economies. All of this makes gold a symbol of "insurance."
However, the current rise in gold does not resemble a classic crisis response. It is more akin to the dynamics of a speculative asset: the upward movement is not only a reaction to bad news but also a reflection of strong demand fueled by expectations of further increases.
Herein lies the most crucial observation from the BIS: gold is no longer acting as a counterbalance to risk. It is moving in synergy with equity markets—especially technology and AI companies, which continue to show aggressive growth in 2025.
For the financial system, this means the disappearance of the traditional "safety cushion." If stocks rise, gold does not offset risk. Conversely, if gold rises, it does not protect against market downturns but merely follows the overall trend.
As a result, investors find themselves "trapped" in correlated assets, increasing the likelihood of a deeper, sharper crisis if the macroeconomic environment changes.
The BIS poses a key question: if a moment of true uncertainty arrives, where will capital flee if both usual directions are similarly overvalued?
One of the BIS's critical theses is that gold is beginning to behave like a risk asset. This is not merely a transition to a new state; it is a signal that traditional capital allocation mechanisms are failing.
Whereas gold was once a conservative portfolio element, it is now increasingly viewed as a way to play the same game as investors in stock markets. This makes gold simultaneously attractive and dangerous.
The modern financial market is highly susceptible to expectations—especially regarding interest rates and the dollar's exchange rate. The current growth of both gold and stocks is fueled by several factors: dollar weakness, expectations for rate cuts, hopes for a soft monetary policy, and faith in the resilience of the technology sector. However, if even one link in this chain falters, the entire mechanism could reverse.
If interest rates begin to rise contrary to expectations, gold will lose its attractiveness. If the dollar strengthens, some speculative positions will be closed. If the tech market cracks, the decline could spill over into the entire range of assets. This is the main vulnerability: the current growth is built on expectations rather than stable fundamentals.
The BIS warns that the synchronous rise of gold and stocks undermines the very essence of diversification. When the market falls, investors will find themselves in a situation where the "safe" asset does not save them but instead amplifies their portfolio's drawdown. This situation is especially dangerous for large holders of gold: central banks, sovereign funds, and governments may face systemic losses if prices reverse sharply.
In this sense, the rise in gold is not only a market story but also a potential factor for the financial stability of nations.
The current situation requires market participants to take a fundamentally different approach than what has worked in recent years.
The financial world is at a turning point where gold is ceasing to be the eternal counterweight to risk, while stocks continue to rise amid soft monetary policy and excitement surrounding technology.
This creates a new, unfamiliar landscape. The BIS did not issue warnings lightly: the synchronous rise of two opposing assets is not just a rare event but a concerning one. It indicates a shift in the financial system toward a mode in which rational logic gives way to expectations and an influx of liquidity.
How long can this paradox last? Until a shock occurs that can pull the market back to its classic behavioral model. But when that happens, both gold and stocks will face a test of resilience.
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