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14.04.202616:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: NASDAQ100 (NDX): fresh downside risk for tech leaders

*) see also: InstaSpot trading indicators for NASDAQ100 (NDX)

Futures on major US equity indices enter the new week in a highly vulnerable position. After last week's optimistic surge on news of a two-week ceasefire, futures on the NASDAQ100 index (NDX in the trading platform) plunged sharply on Monday morning. During the Asian session, they traded around 24,950.0, down 1.10%. The trigger was the complete collapse of US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad and the subsequent escalation of the conflict.

The weekend that markets awaited with such tension produced no desired outcome. The talks in Pakistan's capital, which ran nearly 20 hours, ended without any agreement being signed.

Key disagreements

• Nuclear program of Iran. US Vice President JD Vance said Tehran refuses to give up its nuclear ambitions. Trump's post on Truth Social was blunt: "The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not."
• Control of the strait and assets. The parties failed to agree terms on sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.
• Lack of forward visibility. Unlike the previous round, no agreement was reached even on a follow-up meeting. That removed the market's hope for a rapid diplomatic solution.

Washington's response was immediate. President Trump announced the start of a blockade of all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. The blockade takes effect at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday (14:00 GMT).

What it means for markets

Traffic through the strait is effectively halted. Even during the ceasefire, vessel transits were only about 10% of normal. The situation is worsened by US intentions to intercept vessels that paid Iran transit fees.

Iran warns of a tough response. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said any military ships approaching the conflict zone will be "severely dealt with." The threat of closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also remains.

Despite the breakdown in talks, the formal two-week ceasefire (in force through April 22) has not yet been canceled, leaving a slim chance for diplomacy to be revived.

Earnings season, oil, inflation, and Fed

The primary transmission channel of the Middle East crisis to the NASDAQ is commodity prices and monetary policy.

Oil prices jumped on the news of talks' collapse. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) intraday spiked above $100/bbl and Brent topped $102/bbl. The gain on Monday morning was roughly 7–8%.

That instantly puts a "stagflation shock" back on the agenda — a scenario the market seemed to have exhaled from last week.

The tech sector, the locomotive of the NASDAQ, is highly sensitive to two factors:

• Yield growth. Risk aversion and higher inflation expectations are pushing Treasuries up. Ten-year yields have already risen by roughly 4.0 basis points to 4.341% (at the time of this note) versus last week's close.

• Repricing of the Fed rate. The market has been forced to abandon hopes for near-term rate cuts. More importantly, participants are again starting to price in the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike this year if inflation accelerates.

These factors strike directly at tech valuation multiples, making growth names less attractive relative to defensive assets.

While geopolitics dominates the headlines, don't forget that earnings season for Q1 formally begins this week and attention will quickly shift to the fundamentals of the Magnificent Seven.

Consensus forecasts imply explosive EPS growth of about 27.1% year-on-year for the tech sector. That sets a high bar. If giants such as NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), or Meta (META) fail not only to beat but to materially exceed these expectations amid rising geopolitical risk, the market could experience a "sell-the-news" reaction.

Brief technical analysis

The technical picture has deteriorated slightly. With a gap down, the price broke below the round 25,000.0 level today. Nevertheless, the short-term uptrend formed in early April remains intact.

Bears still have a chance to seize control if they can push through the strong support zone around 24,600.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 24,530.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), and 24,460.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

If sellers break the key medium-term support level of 24,190.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the technical picture would return to consolidation or resume a downtrend with targets near 23,000.0–22,800.0 (the March lows).

Conversely, if diplomacy resumes and produces results, the market could rapidly recoup losses and return to resistance in the 25,500.0–25,800.0 area.

Conclusion

Investor jubilation from last week has given way to harsh reality: the conflict not only failed to end but has entered a new, more dangerous phase of naval blockade. Oil above $100 and futures down more than 1% are the market's reaction to the realization that cheap money and a quick peace are unlikely.

The round level of 25,000.0 is a psychological fulcrum between hope for diplomacy and fear of stagflation. Technically, the index is perilously close to breaching short-term support. For tech investors, the key focus right now should be headlines from Islamabad and Washington rather than individual tickers — those will drive NASDAQ dynamics and, quite possibly, the direction of US and global equity markets over the next 48 hours.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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