12.10.202609:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Saylor Hinted at a New Bitcoin Purchase

Strategy chief Michael Saylor hinted to investors on Sunday at a new Bitcoin purchase, writing that there would always be a place for the "orange" one. Such messages typically precede an SEC filing on Monday, but this time official confirmation will likely come no earlier than Tuesday: U.S. federal institutions are closed Monday for Columbus Day.

The most recent official filing looks ambiguous. According to Form 8-K dated October 5, during September 28–October 4, the company bought 334 BTC for $28.7 million, and its total holdings reached exactly 848,000 BTC at an average purchase price of about $75,440. In the same week, Strategy repurchased roughly 1.77 million preferred STRC shares for $176.3 million — that is, it spent more than six times as much on the buyback as on Bitcoin. For the market, this is an important signal: the largest corporate buyer is allocating the bulk of free cash to supporting its preferred stock rather than buying BTC.

According to company reports, the company allocated only 9.5% of raised funds to Bitcoin purchases; the rest went to dollar reserves, cash, dividends, and preferred-share buybacks. So capital raises don't necessarily mean Bitcoin purchases. But the accumulated cash can finance future buys. And here it matters who benefits. Holders of preferred stock get price support and confidence in payouts, while common shareholders are in a tougher position: debt and preferred shares have priority claims over them. For the Bitcoin market, this means Strategy's purchases are no longer the main demand driver, and that cannot be underestimated against the backdrop of nearly $1 billion in outflows from spot ETFs in October.

My base scenario: on Tuesday Strategy will report a new purchase, but it will be moderate, because the company's priority is now balancing Bitcoin, reserves, and support for preferred shares. A large purchase would be a strong vote of confidence, while a small one combined with continued STRC buybacks would strengthen the thesis of cash accumulation. In any case, the market will watch the ratio of Bitcoin purchases to share buybacks, not just the coin count.

For Bitcoin, the price trades in a narrow range between support at 83,600 and resistance at 84,100, with outer bounds at 83,200 and 84,700, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with full breakout and rebound scenarios. There are two entry options for buying. First, a confirmed breakout above 84,100: buy with a target at 84,700, where I take profit and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average, and Awesome is above zero. Second, a rebound off 83,600 if the downside breakout is unconfirmed and the drop proves false: buy with a return first to 84,100, then to 84,700.

Sales are symmetric. On a confirmed break below 83,600, consider a short position targeting 83,200, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. If the breakout above 84,100 fails and price returns below the level, short from resistance on a return to 83,600, then to 83,200.

For Ether, the logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: inner range between support 2,547 and resistance 2,563, outer bounds 2,519 and 2,584. Buy on a confirmed breakout above 2,563, targeting 2,584, where I take profit and consider a short on the pullback; the condition is the same: price above the 50-day moving average and Awesome above zero. Buy on a rejection off 2,547; if the downside breakout is unconfirmed, go first to 2,563, then to 2,584.

For sales, a confirmed break below 2,547 opens a short targeting 2,519, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. A rejection from 2,563, when the upside breakout fails, gives a short with a return to 2,547, then to 2,519. Both indicators serve as filters to cut false moves rather than independent reasons to enter early, and decisions are taken only after price actually confirms the specified levels.