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The U.S. stock market continues its upward movement; however, indices are approaching key levels that could lead to profit-taking. The week ended in uncertainty: the S&P 500 closed unchanged, the Nasdaq gained 0.4%, while the Dow Jones lost 165 points.
The primary driver of increased volatility was weak retail sales, which fell 0.9% in January, marking the sharpest decline in a year.
This has raised concerns about consumer spending, which remains a key driver of U.S. economic growth.
Despite this, the market remained generally stable as investors digested recent political developments, including Trump's new tariff plans and attempts at diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis.
Wall Street responded positively to the delay of reciprocal tariffs, which allowed indices to post solid weekly gains: S&P 500 rose by 1%, Dow Jones gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq surged by 1.7%.
The technology sector continues to outperform:
The new week begins with cautious optimism, but the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. The focus is on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide hints about the Fed's future policy stance.
Additionally, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially clarifying the outlook for interest rates.
The S&P 500 has held above the critical 6,100 level, confirming the resilience of the current uptrend. If the index remains above 6,120, it could move toward 6,150, where profit-taking may begin.
A breakout above 6,150 would set up a new target at 6,180 – 6,200, potentially reaching a new all-time high.
Key support is now at 6,100, and a break below this level could trigger a pullback to 6,080 and 6,050. If a bearish scenario unfolds, the critical support zone lies near 6,000, where the 50-day SMA is positioned.
If the S&P 500 holds above 6,120, further gains toward 6,150 and beyond are possible. However, a drop below 6,100 could signal a correction toward 6,080 – 6,050.
The Nasdaq 100 continues to rally, reinforcing the strength of the tech sector. Key resistance is at 22,200, and a breakout would open the door to 22,500, marking a new record high. However, signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential pullback, particularly if investors begin to lock in profits.
The overbought condition increases the risk of a short-term correction. If the Nasdaq 100 holds above 22,200, further gains toward 22,500 are possible. However, a drop below 22,000 could trigger a decline toward 21,800 – 21,600.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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