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The euro and British pound performed quite well today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I traded the Japanese yen using Momentum, and it showed a notable strengthening against the US dollar.
In the first half of the day, the euro reacted with gains to news that inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.8% in June. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of price growth and directly affects expectations regarding ECB policy, as the stronger the inflation, the stronger the arguments in favor of a more hawkish stance by the central bank. This is why the single currency responded to the acceleration with gains. However, an important detail is hidden behind the headline figure, changing the interpretation of the report. The reason for the acceleration is clear, as fuel made the largest contribution, rising by as much as 11.2%. At the same time, core inflation was only 2.4%, meaning that the increase was purely energy-driven.
The core measure is considered a more accurate indicator of persistent price pressures, and its subdued reading indicates that there has been no fundamental acceleration in prices and that the increase was entirely driven by higher fuel prices. For the ECB, this is an unfavorable signal, as the energy shock has returned to the statistics of the bloc's largest economy precisely when the central bank had been counting on sustained disinflation.
The market is now awaiting much more significant data from the United States, namely the Consumer Price Index and its core measure, which excludes food and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index reflects the pace of inflation and is considered one of the key indicators for the Fed, as price dynamics determine whether the central bank will tighten or ease monetary policy. The core measure is considered more important because it excludes volatile components and provides a more accurate picture of persistent price pressures.
The importance of this report for the dollar is difficult to overstate. A sharp increase in inflation would strengthen the case for a more hawkish Fed stance, pushing US bond yields higher and strengthening the dollar. A weaker reading, by contrast, would reduce expectations of monetary policy tightening and remove support for the currency, so the market will be closely watching the deviation of the actual figure from the forecast.
If the data are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no significant market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
For EURUSD
For GBPUSD
For USDJPY
For EURUSD
For GBPUSD
For AUDUSD
For USDCAD
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
