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The British pound and the Canadian dollar were traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using Momentum.
The main focus today shifts to the FOMC decision on the key interest rate, as well as the accompanying statement and Kevin Warsh's press conference.
The rate decision itself directly determines the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the statement reveals the regulator's reasoning and hints at future steps, while the press conference allows traders to assess the Fed Chair's tone and his view of the economy. The market-implied probability of a rate hike is estimated at around 35%, meaning that keeping rates unchanged today is far from guaranteed, and any surprise could cause a sharp move in the currency market.
This creates a direct risk for the euro and the pound. In the event of an unexpected tightening or a hawkish tone from Warsh, the dollar could strengthen significantly against risk assets, putting pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A more dovish outcome, on the contrary, would weaken the US currency and provide both European currencies with room for further growth.
Traders will closely monitor the wording of the FOMC statement, particularly assessments of inflation and labour market conditions. Any signals that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than expected or that the labour market remains strong could be interpreted as hawkish. On the other hand, if the Fed expresses caution regarding growth prospects or acknowledges the possibility of slower inflation, which is unlikely, this could be viewed as a dovish signal, triggering dollar weakness.
In the event of strong economic data, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:
For EUR/USD
For GBP/USD
For USD/JPY
Mean Reversion strategy (return to the level) for the second half of the day:
For EUR/USD
For GBP/USD
For AUD/USD
For USD/CAD
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
