29.07.202612:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – July 29th

The British pound and the Canadian dollar were traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not trade anything using Momentum.

The main focus today shifts to the FOMC decision on the key interest rate, as well as the accompanying statement and Kevin Warsh's press conference.

The rate decision itself directly determines the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the statement reveals the regulator's reasoning and hints at future steps, while the press conference allows traders to assess the Fed Chair's tone and his view of the economy. The market-implied probability of a rate hike is estimated at around 35%, meaning that keeping rates unchanged today is far from guaranteed, and any surprise could cause a sharp move in the currency market.

This creates a direct risk for the euro and the pound. In the event of an unexpected tightening or a hawkish tone from Warsh, the dollar could strengthen significantly against risk assets, putting pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A more dovish outcome, on the contrary, would weaken the US currency and provide both European currencies with room for further growth.

Traders will closely monitor the wording of the FOMC statement, particularly assessments of inflation and labour market conditions. Any signals that inflationary pressures are proving more persistent than expected or that the labour market remains strong could be interpreted as hawkish. On the other hand, if the Fed expresses caution regarding growth prospects or acknowledges the possibility of slower inflation, which is unlikely, this could be viewed as a dovish signal, triggering dollar weakness.

In the event of strong economic data, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above the 1.1395 level could lead to euro growth towards the 1.1420 and 1.1442 levels.
• Selling on a breakout below the 1.1385 level could lead to a decline in the euro towards the 1.1370 and 1.1355 levels.

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above the 1.3300 level could lead to pound growth towards the 1.3330 and 1.3360 levels.
• Selling on a breakout below the 1.3275 level could lead to a decline in the pound towards the 1.3245 and 1.3220 levels.

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above the 163.76 level could lead to dollar growth towards the 163.99 and 164.24 levels.
• Selling on a breakout below the 163.48 level could lead to dollar selling towards the 163.18 and 162.92 levels.

Mean Reversion strategy (return to the level) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1405 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1380 followed by a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3308 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3281 followed by a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6960 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6935 followed by a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4114 followed by a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4091 followed by a return to this level.