09.10.202609:13 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Gold's Bounce on Easier Yields Is No Reason for Optimism

Gold rose more than 1% today and trades around $4,200/oz, recovering from a two-month low hit earlier in the week. Silver gained 1.8% to $60.24 and erased the prior session's losses; platinum and palladium also advanced.

Thursday's $22bn 30-year Treasury auction was the catalyst. Cheaper bonds drew buyers, demand was solid, and yields fell across the curve, retreating from multi-decade highs. The 10-year yield had been near 5.31% after Wednesday's 5.35% peak. Gold, which pays no interest, benefits when yields fall; those who had pressed short positions at the peak suffered.

Oil added support. Brent fell below $103 after Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the November 3 midterms, and the logic is straightforward: cheaper energy eases inflation expectations, easing pressure on rates and yields — and on gold. However, Hormuz remains the backdrop: since early October, nine attacks on vessels have been reported, and any new incident could push oil back above $105 in a single session and revive pressure on the metal.

The Federal Reserve sets the ceiling for this bounce. Policy is currently 3.75–4.00%; the market expects a pause in October and a 25bp hike to 4.00–4.25% in December with roughly an 80% probability. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said yesterday that rates should rise over the next six-to-nine months to return inflation to 2%, though he did not argue for an immediate move. Banks remain optimistic on gold: Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 by year-end, and Citi $4,800 in the next three months, though the metal remains far from the January record near $5,600.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the near resistance at $4,186 to target $4,249, above which a breakout becomes difficult. The far target is $4,304. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124. If they succeed, a range break would seriously damage bull positions and push gold toward $4,062, with a prospect of reaching $4,047.