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Bitcoin trades around $84,150, down 1.7% in 24 hours. On such a sharp pullback, it becomes especially visible how price relative to purchase cost changes the position of the largest holders. In its October 5 report, Strategy valued a tax benefit of $4.1 billion after Bitcoin's fair value on September 30 rose above its average purchase price.
At the start of October, the company holds 848,000 BTC, purchased for $63.97 billion—or $75,440.7 per coin, including fees. At the current $84,150, the price is about 11.5% above the average purchase, and I estimate unrealized profit at roughly $7.4 billion. But the effect works both ways: in reports for Q1 and Q2, when costs exceeded fair value, Strategy created a reserve and wrote down the tax asset completely. If Bitcoin falls below $75,441—roughly 10% from the current price—the paper gain will likely disappear.
ETF holders sit closer to the breakeven line. The average cost of Bitcoin in BlackRock's IBIT was $81,188 per BTC as of October 2. Price is only about 3.6% above that level. Other estimates for all spot ETFs put breakevens at $81,722 and $82,225, so the corridor is roughly $81,200–$82,200.
Spot ETF flows are also telling. Since the start of the week they have lost $89.8 million.
My base case: the $81,200–$81,700 area, where ETF cost estimates converge, will be the first buyer interest zone, and I expect it to hold on the first test. While price remains above it, chances of returning to $86,000 remain, and I allow for a sideways range of roughly $82,000–$86,000 until the November 3 election. A close below $81,200 would turn the rally into a sell market for those seeking to exit at breakeven and open the way to $80,500.
A technical picture for Bitcoin
Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $84,900, which would open a direct path to $87,000 and then toward $89,000; breaking $89,000 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $83,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $81,300. The most distant downside target is around $79,400.
A technical picture for Ethereum
A clear hold above $2,668 would open a direct path to $2,739. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,793; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,578. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,486. The most distant downside target would be around $2,433.
What we see on the chart:
- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;
- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;
- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;
- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.
A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.
* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.
Kajian analisis InstaSpot akan membuat anda mengetahui sepenuhnya aliran pasaran! Sebagai pelanggan InstaSpot, anda disediakan sejumlah besar perkhidmatan percuma untuk dagangan yang cekap.
