08.10.202612:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market picks its favorites

Nvidia led the market to new records, but even it has lost its former premium. The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs while stock multiples are falling in unison, as if the fa?ade of a building has been renovated while the foundation cracks.

P/E dynamics

A negative factor for stocks is rising bond yields. Yields on 10?year Treasuries hit a 24?year high and posted the sharpest quarterly jump since 1994. Higher risk?free rates change how Wall Street values assets: risk appetite weakens if earnings do not grow fast enough to offset the effect.

Crossmark Global Investments notes that the rise in rates has already had a huge impact on the stock market: the P/E multiple has fallen by three turns. Since the last record close, the S&P 500 has declined across 18 of 25 industry groups. The equal?weight version of the index is down 5%, while banks and real estate have fallen more than 10%.

A narrow group of companies is extending a helping hand to the market. Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and Meta Platforms alone contributed roughly 300 points of the S&P 500's gain in the third quarter — three times the index's overall advance — while the other 496 companies together subtracted 150 points, according to Citadel Securities. Citadel argues that the stock market is not the economy, and the S&P 500 is increasingly unlike the average stock.

Weakness in cyclical, economically sensitive stocks is weighing on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, often seen as an economic barometer, is down nearly 4% over the past month, while the Nasdaq has risen by about the same amount. The small?cap Russell 2000 is trailing roughly 9% below its highs, teetering near correction territory.

Corporate earnings dynamics

A positive for the market is record corporate earnings growth. Earnings rose 33% year?on?year in Q2, and Deutsche Bank expects the pace to remain around 34% in Q3 versus a consensus forecast of 27%. Goldman Sachs estimates that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending account for more than half of S&P 500 EPS growth this quarter, and hyperscalers' capex jumped 116%.

Societe Generale is more cautious. It argues that cap?weighting distorts the signal, since rapidly growing companies occupy an ever?larger share of the picture, and low?base effects after downturns exaggerate earnings growth rates.

In summary, the market is supported by record earnings and AI?infrastructure spending, while rising yields and extreme concentration of market cap in a handful of tech giants pressure the S&P 500.

Technically, on the daily chart, a rebound from 7,785 enabled additional long positions. A break above 7,810 would be a new reason to buy.