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Expensive oil, rising bond yields, and a strong dollar are pressing the S&P 500, but bulls remain optimistic
Trouble doesn't come alone. The US equity market is facing it in three faces. The S&P 500 has pulled back, yet large banks are not rushing for the exits.
Coastal Bridge Advisors likens the threat to the S&P 500 to a three-headed monster: the heads are high rates, expensive oil, and a strong dollar. The US–Iran standoff is stoking energy prices, and investors fear elevated inflation will persist. That reinforces expectations for further Fed tightening. It's hard for the market to rally when all three heads are pulling upward.
Yield-curve dynamics
The bond market is applying pressure to the S&P 500. The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasuries has compressed to 17 basis points, the tightest gap since early 2025. One more move and the curve could invert, meaning long-term bonds would yield less than short-term paper. Historically, such inversions preceded each of the last eight recessions since the 1960s (though the signal misfired briefly earlier this decade). For a broad index standing near record highs, the narrowing curve is an ominous warning.
Oil and rates are a double negative for equities. Jefferies argues the world has become single-factor: commodities dictate bond yields, and yields govern asset classes.
A fresh drag on the tech segment is caution from AI developers. OpenAI shelved its next-generation model after security issues emerged in internal testing — a rare setback for the sector. Chipmakers are only now emerging from a difficult patch, and additional brakes on AI demand are the last thing they need.
Nvidia lends the market a helping hand. The board approved a $150 billion expansion of the buyback program, the largest repurchase in US history. Yet the rest of the Magnificent Seven didn't ride the wave and closed lower; Nvidia is pulling the wagon almost single-handedly.
Tech performance and P/E dynamics
Valuations offer a positive note for the S&P 500. JP Morgan says the Magnificent Seven trades at its cheapest levels in a decade. Corporate earnings continue to grow, and the crowd in tech has thinned. The bank has flipped from neutral to bullish on US equities, betting yields will stabilize, and oil will retreat — perhaps in fits and starts, like an old car struggling to start in the cold.
The broad index is still walking a tightrope above the abyss. Will it have the strength to sever all three heads?
Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows that bears are attempting to push prices back into the descending trading channel and complete a 1-2-3 reversal. A break below the pivot at 7,670 would justify short-term selling. Conversely, a bounce would be a signal to add to long positions.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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