28.09.202616:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Sellers with leverage piling back into crypto market

Bitcoin slipped about 2% to $82,600 a day after Donald Trump declined to rule out new strikes on Iran before the US midterms. Earlier, the price had held near $83,150 after a 1.72% one-day gain. Notably, even after this drop, Bitcoin remains more than $20,000 above the cycle low and is the best-performing asset of Q3. That makes the current weakness look like a pullback after a strong rally rather than a crash — the question is who is willing to bet on continuation.

The futures market gives the answer. Open interest — the number of active futures contracts — is around 652,000 BTC, one of the lowest levels this year, while it reached 800,000 at the start of the year. That's 148,000 BTC below the peak, and the decline shows capital leaving the leveraged market despite Bitcoin's roughly 40% gain in Q3. At the same time, funding rates on perpetual contracts have turned negative again, averaging about -0.3% on major exchanges. The funding rate is the fee one side pays the other, and a negative rate means shorts are willing to pay longs to keep bearish positions open. I wouldn't rule out that a sharp rebound could force shorts to cover, leading to a larger upward spike in Bitcoin.

Pressure is coming not only from inside crypto. Gold lost roughly 3% in a day and trades near $4,150/oz. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is approaching 20 ounces per coin and is about to turn positive year-to-date, so Bitcoin is currently holding up better than the safe-haven metal — a factor that could boost institutional demand for BTC.

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, the price was about $83,039, just $61 under resistance at $83,100 and inside a corridor between support at $82,500 and that resistance; further levels lie at $81,700 below and $83,800 above. The plan is built around two mirrored directions, each with breakout and rejection scenarios. For buys, the first setup is a move above $83,100 with a close above the level; I enter long only if price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. The target is $83,800, where I take profits and consider reversing to short on a pullback. The second buy scenario works when price dips below $82,500 but does not hold there and returns above — i.e., a false downside breakout. Then I buy the return, targeting $83,100 first and $83,800 if price stays above.

The sell setup is symmetrical. If price falls below $82,500 with confirmation (moving average above price and Awesome below zero), I consider a short toward $81,700. If price rises above $83,100 but fails to hold and returns under the level (an unconfirmed upside breakout), I sell the return with initial target $82,500 and then $81,700 if weakness persists. Given price sits close to $83,100, the first touch does not prove anything — I wait for a close or a return before acting.

Ethereum

This logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. Ethereum is trading in a tight range between support at $2,638 and resistance at $2,657, with further targets at $2,615 below and $2,683 above. I consider a breakout buy when price closes above $2,657, provided it is above the 50-day moving average and Awesome is positive. Target $2,683, where I take profit and look for a short position on a pullback. The bounce buy is used when price briefly pierces $2,638 to the downside but does not hold and returns above — I buy that return, targeting $2,657 first and $2,683 if sustained.

Sell scenarios for Ethereum start with a confirmed close below $2,638 (moving average above price, Awesome negative), targeting $2,615. The rejection sell is considered after a failed close above $2,657 and a return under the level — I sell the return toward $2,638 and then $2,615 if pressure continues. Both the moving average and Awesome are used only as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone entry signals; decisions are taken only after price confirms the levels outlined.