11.09.202600:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Euro Comes Back Down to Earth

Can a rate hike turn into a currency selloff? The European Central Bank just proved it can. The central bank raised the deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.5%, tightening financial conditions, but it did not signal continuation of the cycle. Euro bulls had bet on that signal, and their disappointment turned into EUR/USD selling. It's textbook "buy the rumor, sell the news." Brent's rally added fuel to the fire.

ECB rates and financial conditions

The decision wording is deliberately neutral: the Governing Council preserves the ability to react to uncertainty from the conflict and makes no precommitments on the rate path. In other words, all options remain open. Lagarde will likely try to hold that uncertainty in the press conference.

The updated projections, however, reveal the central bank's true stance. The ECB raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 2.5% from 2.3% and for 2028 to 2.1% from 2.0%. The bank explicitly states that inflation will remain above target "for a prolonged period." At the same time, it raised its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.2%.

Money markets had already priced many of these nuances. Short-term yields again topped 3%, and Euribor futures fully price in two more hikes in Feb and July 2027, with a peak rate around 3%. As Bloomberg Intelligence notes, tightening looked inevitable. More important was whether the ECB would keep a hawkish tone amid talk of second-round effects and inflation expectations. Judging by the euro's reaction, the market found the response insufficiently hawkish.

That said, the September decision is not the end of the story. Christine Lagarde's press conference and the upcoming US inflation release can still reverse the picture, although the ECB president is unlikely to adopt an overtly hawkish tone today.

Brent topped $102/bbl, extending its rally above triple digits for the first time since July. Renewed hostilities ended a short lull, and the prospect of a protracted conflict fuels energy-inflation fears. Gas and diesel prices are rising too. Iran said it will not bow to the US naval blockade and will intensify strikes in response to new attacks. Meanwhile, Donald Trump openly said the war will not end before the November midterms and that a notable decline in gasoline prices should not be expected sooner. The confrontation has now lasted seven months with no end in sight.

The euro now looks hostage to two factors — Frankfurt's neutral tone and the barrel price. Which one will pull the covers sooner?

Technically, the daily chart shows a pin-bar was played out. Short positions entered from 1.164 could have been added on a break below its low at 1.162.