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Brent approached $100 per barrel, rising 0.7 percent. WTI for October delivery rose 1.7 percent to $93.03. Traders await details of an Iran-Oman agreement on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while strong Chinese buying further tightens the market.
Tehran said the deal is close and will include a temporary safe route. The key question now is how Washington will react after strikes on Iranian tankers over the weekend. Iran also warned that vessels face attack risk near Oman — so a safe route is being announced alongside threats in the same area.
The main conflict of interest lies in the agreement's substance, which the market is underestimating. Iran and Oman seek to formalize control over the strait and could eventually charge transit fees. The US, which has been blocking Iranian ports to curb exports, wants a return to a pre-conflict status of free navigation through Hormuz. This is not about technical route details but about whether the strait will become a paid, Tehran-controlled corridor.
Against this backdrop, Brent at $100 is only a matter of time, since uncertainty about the US response itself supports a risk premium, and the physical deficit in oil products remains. It seems clear the Iran-Oman deal, in its proposed form, will not gain Washington's recognition, and instead of de-escalation, the market may enter a new phase of tension over the route's legitimacy.
Another issue not to forget is refining. Diesel and other refined products are rising much faster than crude, creating additional price pressure across supply chains from input to output.
Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $95.50. That would allow targeting $100.40, above which a breakout would become rather difficult. The most distant target is around $103.40. If oil falls, bears will try to take control of $92.54. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push oil toward the $89.54 low, with a further prospect of reaching $87.10.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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