04.09.202610:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market takes revenge

The stock market decided to pre-count future macro figures and delivered its best day in a month. The rally was unusually broad: every S&P 500 sector except three closed higher. Financials and consumer discretionary gained more than 1.5%, and each of the Magnificent Seven finished the day above its open.

S&P 500 daily performance

The catalyst was comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller. He said that if August inflation data confirms recent progress, he is prepared to support keeping the federal funds rate at the current 3.75% at the next FOMC meeting. In his view, recent data shows signs of disinflation. The derivatives market reacted immediately: CME-priced odds of a rate move in September tumbled to a coin-flip — 50/50 — down from about 70% the day before.

Waller's remarks also filled a vacuum left after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stepped back from the practice of steering market expectations in advance. That role is now being filled by individual officials and investors' own interpretation of the data. Meanwhile, Treasury yields, whose recent rise has frayed nerves globally, eased slightly.

The corporate calendar added fuel. Nvidia shares rose by 1.8% after the company, with a market cap north of $5 trillion, agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93 billion — another move to expand its open-model ecosystem amid competition from Chinese developers. Navellier & Associates says the AI data-center boom is intact, and as autumn cools the weather, the firm expects equities to heat up on another wave of record corporate profits.

US nonfarm payrolls dynamics

However, it's too early to celebrate. Economists expect the payrolls report to show a 55,000 rise in jobs, roughly this year's average. The futures market is pricing in only about a 0.7% move in the S&P 500 in either direction, according to Citigroup. A "Goldilocks" print would ease rate-hike fears; an overly strong NFP would revive them. Initial jobless claims largely matched forecasts, while services sector activity posted its strongest monthly gain in six months in August.

In short, the market has priced in a soft landing, but the final verdict won't come from Christopher Waller; it will come from US jobs data.

Technically, the S&P 500 reclaimed fair value at 7,675 on the daily chart, enabling long positions. The odds of a completed 1-2-3 reversal have fallen, increasing the likelihood of a resumed uptrend. Recommendation: hold positions open.