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Bitcoin has been tracing an upward move that is a correction for almost three months. This is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. A liquidity pool below remains untouched, and the price is likely to revisit it with roughly a 90% probability. Last week showed the first signs of the correction ending, but over the weekend, Bitcoin resumed its advance. Therefore, we are now waiting for the next situation that would confirm the end of the 2.5-month correction.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, co-founder and ex-CEO of Strategy, a company that has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin over the past five years and adhered to a "never sell" doctrine, has allowed for possible Bitcoin selling. According to Saylor, the firm may deviate from its long-term strategy not because of financial distress but to convince the market that it is immune to panic and to demonstrate the resilience of its business model. The idea is that investors will then be reassured about the company's stability and the absence of problems with either Bitcoin or Strategy's business. Interestingly, Strategy recorded a net loss of $12.5 billion in Q1. The bulk of that loss came from Bitcoin itself (unrealized losses), as the crypto slumped about 24% in Q1. Saylor has previously stated that Strategy would buy Bitcoin forever and could withstand a drawdown to even $8,000 per coin. As we can see, times change — and now, simply "to convince the market of business stability," the company is prepared to start selling its "digital gold" in order to fund dividend payments.
It should also be recalled that for several years, Strategy has been financing Bitcoin purchases by issuing common and preferred shares. In simple terms, the company continually raises capital and directs it into Bitcoin. Thus, Strategy wants to show the world that Bitcoin is not only an investment of the future but also an instrument that can be readily bought and sold when necessary. Frankly, it looks like an attempt to put on a brave face while playing a poor hand.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downtrend with corrective rallies inside it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. The only current POI is the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF, located in the $79,300–$81,200 area. It has not yet been fully invalidated, but could be soon. If that happens, the POI for sell entries would shift to $84,900–$88,800. Downside targets remain below $60,000. For long positions, you can use the single bullish FVG, but remember the current move is a correction.
On the daily TF, a downtrend and corrective moves against it continue to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish weekly order block. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long-lasting, and we do not believe it is finished. In the near term, ETH may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. A sell signal may form on the daily TF at the next FVG, and Bitcoin may form its own signal as well. Therefore, we recommend watching for structure breaks on lower TFs and the formation (or reaction to) bearish patterns on higher TFs. The target at the 2026 low — $1,744 — looks quite achievable.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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