The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
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The market has been focused entirely on the FOMC meeting for a whole week. There are several reasons for this. First, there's not much else to discuss. Occasionally, bland reports from Europe or the US come out, only leading to another yawn among market participants. Second, the December FOMC meeting could be significant. Although the decision is effectively already made, the market might face numerous surprises today. Judging by the movements in the currency market over the past weeks, traders are well aware of this.
If the December meeting seems clear — rates will be cut by 25 basis points — no one understands what will happen next year. Undoubtedly, the simplest scenario is a gradual continuation of rate cuts. However, such a scenario lacks an economic foundation. More specifically, none of the obvious scenarios for 2026 has a clear economic basis.
How can the Federal Reserve continue to ease monetary policy if inflation is rising? Or, even better phrased: how can the Fed announce a continuation of the easing of monetary policy if it's currently unclear whether inflation is rising? I remind you that the latest consumer price index came out for September. The October report will not be released; the November report will be released next week.
Now, let's consider another apparent scenario — a pause. How can the Fed claim it needs to halt easing for a time when there are also no labor market data available? The next Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will also be released only next week.
Given all of the above, I believe we will hear the sacramental phrase that future decisions will heavily depend on economic data. However, in fact, the Fed will be preparing for a prolonged pause. Jerome Powell may hint at this, or he may not. But a pause is necessary because the last two rounds of policy easing were implemented blindly. The Fed lowered interest rates in advance, suspecting that the labor market would continue to "cool." However, three rounds of easing should be sufficient to help the labor market rebound somewhat. A pause is also needed to determine whether the labor market is recovering, since it is well known that the effects of monetary policy changes do not appear immediately.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the US dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25th figure. However, the last upward trend segment has again taken on a corrective appearance, indicating that a minimum bearish wave of this segment may now begin, while the maximum is a potential new bearish corrective wave formation.
The wave structure for GBP/USD has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulse trend segment, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The bearish corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. However, the wave 4 itself may take on a five-wave appearance.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, but the current wave structure is more likely corrective again. Therefore, a decline this week is possible, and the attempt to break the 1.3360 level has been unsuccessful.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
