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On Wednesday, silver (XAG/USD) is showing declines, holding near the round level of $57.00. The precious metal continues to face pressure as U.S. Treasury yields rise and the U.S. dollar strengthens modestly, reducing demand for non-yielding assets. At the same time, rising oil prices increase inflationary risks and raise expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. dollar is recovering from a three-week low recorded on Tuesday, supported by higher Treasury yields and growing expectations that the Fed will maintain restrictive monetary policy. More expensive borrowing generally weighs on silver because the metal yields no interest, making interest-bearing assets more attractive to investors.
Additional pressure on the precious-metals market comes from oil prices, which have remained elevated for four days amid uncertainty over talks between Washington and Tehran that heighten concerns about prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict have not yet produced results despite new mediation attempts.
Pakistan's army chief of staff, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Tuesday to help facilitate dialogue between the U.S. and Iran. Nevertheless, the negotiation process reportedly hit serious difficulties after Iran refused to remove enriched nuclear material from the country. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this week acknowledged that reaching a peace agreement with Iran remains extremely difficult and affirmed Washington's readiness to continue economic pressure on Tehran.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, in turn, said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States accepts Iran's conditions. Ongoing disruptions in this strategically important maritime corridor fuel concerns about global oil supplies, support energy prices and raise the risk of more persistent inflation.
This dynamic raises expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates again in December, adding headwinds for silver. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price in about a 90% chance of another rate hike in December. These expectations formed after last week's U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside and heightened concerns about persistent price pressures.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may limit the fall in silver prices by supporting demand for safe-haven assets. Thus, opposing forces are at play: geopolitical risk provides some support, while rising yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy put downward pressure on prices.
Market participants should pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 28 and to the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 29. As this measure is the Fed's key inflation gauge, the report could give additional guidance on the likely path of U.S. interest rates and help determine the direction of silver prices.
From a technical perspective, prices remain under pressure, trading below all major moving averages. The 9-day EMA provides the nearest resistance. Support is the round level of $57.00. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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