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The wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart is becoming more complex. There is still no question of invalidating the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January last year. On the contrary, we have seen a complete corrective A-B-C structure, which may have already been completed. However, recent events related to the Fed and its policy have once again affected the current wave structure. As a reminder, the news background and wave structure often conflict with each other, making adjustments necessary.
The wave structure may now become more complex again. Wave C has taken a three-wave form, while the next wave is identified as wave D. The entire trend segment that began on January 27 may now take the form of a five-wave corrective structure, A-B-C-D-E. If this assumption is correct, wave D has been completed, and on August 21, EUR/USD entered the phase of forming wave E, whose low should be below the low of wave C at 1.1325. Now only one question remains: will the news background support the dollar enough for the instrument to fall below 1.1325? We get the answer to this question every day: no additional support from the news background is required.
Demand for the US currency continues to increase.
The EUR/USD pair rose by 65 basis points during Wednesday's trading session, and market participants once again have to look for an answer to the question of what is behind such a strong rise in the US currency. As a reminder, all recent geopolitical developments point, if not to the establishment of peace in the Middle East, then to the gradual normalization of operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a ceasefire, and a return by the US and Iran to negotiations. If the dollar repeatedly rose earlier in 2026 because of geopolitical tensions, why is it rising now, when the need for a safe-haven asset is disappearing?
A similar question can be asked about the Fed's monetary policy. The FOMC Committee made a decision more than a week ago to conduct the first round of policy tightening and also made it clear to the markets that this round would not be the last. However, the market priced in the policy tightening before the Fed meeting, immediately after the Fed meeting, and one week after the Fed meeting. Essentially, what is continuing to drive the dollar higher? Is it because the probability of policy tightening by the end of the year is constantly increasing? However, according to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants are pricing in no more than one additional rate hike in 2026. Approximately the same expectations prevailed in the market during the summer and in September.
Moreover, if the Strait of Hormuz begins to gradually reopen and the conflict in the Middle East once again moves toward negotiations and de-escalation, it is obvious that energy prices will decline. Inflation will slow along with them, so the Fed may not need to conduct several rounds of rate hikes.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the framework of a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend segment. If this assumption is correct, the decline in the quotes will continue, with targets located below the low of wave C at 1.1325. I considered this scenario to be an alternative one, and if it had not been for the Fed meeting, it would have remained a reserve scenario. However, the Fed delivered a surprise, leaving the market with no other options but another wave of US currency buying. However, buying has continued for several weeks, even though there are no new supporting factors for the dollar. I would not open short positions given the current news background.
On the larger timeframe, an upward trend segment can be seen, followed by the formation of a corrective A-B-C structure. This structure may take a five-wave form, but at the current time, I consider it complete. If so, the formation of a new impulsive upward trend segment has begun.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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