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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming more complex. There is still no question of invalidating the bullish section of the trend (lower chart), which began in January last year. However, the wave pattern of the trend has taken on a corrective form. In the long term, wave C should be expected to develop, with its low expected to be below the low of wave A. At present, the low of wave C is below the low of wave A, so wave C could be completed at any time or may already be complete. However, if the fundamental backdrop is favorable for the dollar, this wave could develop into a more extended structure.
On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic five-wave downward structure. If this assumption is correct, wave 4 is currently developing, while wave 3 has taken a five-wave form. Once this structure is complete, the pair could begin forming an upward wave sequence. However, according to the current wave count, the development of wave 5 has not even started yet. Therefore, the euro could decline further toward the 1.1300 area or lower.
The EUR/USD pair barely changed again during Wednesday's trading session. One hour after the US inflation report was released, the total trading range was just 15 points. In other words, market participants found nothing important for their trading decisions in the inflation report. The reaction to the report was extremely weak, and the market continues to demonstrate just one thing—a complete lack of willingness to move in either direction. This situation is beginning to look unusual.
The US dollar was fortunate today. Although US inflation was in line with market expectations, it nevertheless slowed for the second consecutive month. Consequently, the probability of the Fed tightening monetary policy in September began to approach zero. Against this backdrop, demand for the US currency could have declined much more significantly. However, EUR/USD failed even to break above the August 7 high, which is only 30 basis points away. Therefore, wave 4 of C still appears complete, the current wave structure remains intact, and the pair could still begin developing downward wave 5 of C.
Can we expect the US currency to strengthen in the near term? Based on the latest economic data, no. All of the most important US economic reports have been weak and do not suggest further dollar appreciation. At present, only geopolitics could support the US currency. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative, but have not deteriorated significantly. If Donald Trump decides to launch new strikes against Iran or if Iran asks the Houthis to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, this could provide a strong reason for the market to sell the pair. What I mean is that the US dollar could rise in the coming weeks, but given the current fundamental backdrop, this scenario would be difficult to expect. More likely, the wave count will undergo some changes.
Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within the bullish section of the trend (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a bearish section of the trend. In my view, this is a reasonable time to consider establishing long positions, but the pair could still decline toward the 1.1300 level as part of wave 5 of C. Wave analysis often produces unexpected developments, so I would already begin shifting my focus toward buying opportunities.
On the higher time frame, a bullish section of the trend is visible, after which a corrective wave sequence began to develop. In the near term, wave C should be expected to develop toward targets around 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Once the A-B-C structure is complete, a new long-term bullish trend could begin to develop.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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