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The price test at 1.1551 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. The second test at 1.1551 prompted the implementation of Scenario No. 2 to buy euros, but the pair did not show a significant rise.
Strong statements from the Federal Reserve representative set the tone for trading yesterday and supported the dollar amid a lack of significant data. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack noted in an interview that several rate hikes might be necessary to bring inflation down to 2%, and these remarks partly prompted a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and a decline in risk assets. Since there were no other market guidelines, Hammack's comments grabbed attention and recalibrated expectations regarding the central bank's policy. Against this backdrop, the single currency lost ground.
Today, the euro enters the day with a sparse agenda, with the only item for the eurozone being Italy's trade balance. This indicator reflects the ratio of exports to imports, but the market usually prices in such data in advance and reacts lethargically, with its influence on the exchange rate being more long-term in nature. Therefore, a significant surge in volatility from this release is not to be expected.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying euros can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1547 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to the level of 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back in anticipation of a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect euro growth after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1529, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1547 and 1.1571.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I intend to exit the market and buy back in (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is bad data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1547, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1507.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
