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11.08.202608:58 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on August 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Deals

Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The price test at 1.1551 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. The second test at 1.1551 prompted the implementation of Scenario No. 2 to buy euros, but the pair did not show a significant rise.

Strong statements from the Federal Reserve representative set the tone for trading yesterday and supported the dollar amid a lack of significant data. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack noted in an interview that several rate hikes might be necessary to bring inflation down to 2%, and these remarks partly prompted a strengthening of the U.S. dollar and a decline in risk assets. Since there were no other market guidelines, Hammack's comments grabbed attention and recalibrated expectations regarding the central bank's policy. Against this backdrop, the single currency lost ground.

Today, the euro enters the day with a sparse agenda, with the only item for the eurozone being Italy's trade balance. This indicator reflects the ratio of exports to imports, but the market usually prices in such data in advance and reacts lethargically, with its influence on the exchange rate being more long-term in nature. Therefore, a significant surge in volatility from this release is not to be expected.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying euros can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1547 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to the level of 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back in anticipation of a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect euro growth after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1529, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1547 and 1.1571.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1529 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1507, where I intend to exit the market and buy back in (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is bad data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1547, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1529 and 1.1507.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where take profit can be set, or profit can be realized, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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