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Bad news is good news, goes the cynical market wisdom, and Friday proved it literally. The S&P 500 closed at a record high after the US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, instead of the expected gain of 83,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but it fell not because of hiring but because Americans are leaving the labor force in droves. May and June prints were also revised lower.
The market responded to the weakness with undisguised enthusiasm. Investors interpreted the jobs miss as a signal: the Fed will stay on hold in September. According to CME data, derivatives are pricing in a 58% probability of a pause versus 42% for a rate hike. Monetary tightening, which had recently seemed all but certain, has taken a back seat.
Corporate profit dynamics
The week turned out to be the best for US equities since April. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose by 3.6% and 3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.2%. However, the weak jobs report alone does not fully explain the strength of the rally. In fact, earnings season is delivering results that Wall Street has note seen in a long time: S&P 500 companies posted 50.4% profit growth in the second quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2021. According to FactSet, 86% of the more than 440 companies that have reported beat analyst estimates, with actual earnings coming in roughly 29% above forecasts, marking the largest upside surprise since 2008.
In effect, strong results from the largest companies are dispelling concerns that the rally is driven by just a few AI stocks. Still, earnings growth remains concentrated in the energy and AI sectors, particularly among memory manufacturers servicing surging chip demand.
Meanwhile, there is no shortage of reasons for concern: the Iran conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed will continue to balance between inflation and employment. However, it is the euphoria, not geopolitics, that worries strategists the most. According to Bank of America, the bull-bear indicator rose to 9.7 from 9.4, the highest since 2021. Historically, such levels of optimism have preceded sharp and painful pullbacks in the broad equity index.
Thus, the market has received two reasons to rally at once – weak labor data and strong earnings – but it is precisely their coincidence that is generating excessive crowd confidence. One man is not a warrior: even stellar earnings do not negate the fact that the market has been forgetting caution for too long, and Wall Street has a short memory.
Will strong profits be enough for investors to ignore the off-the-charts optimism of their own colleagues? I doubt it.
Technically, on the daily S&P 500 chart, the doji bar has been played out, signaling that initiative has returned to bulls. Long positions initiated at the 7,730 pivot level can be increased on a breakout above 7,800.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
