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On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to both correct and resume a new upward trend. In the first half of the day, the market was hit by a new wave of disappointment as Eurozone inflation rose only to 2.9% (in line with forecasts), significantly reducing hawkish expectations for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Additionally, the unemployment rate in Germany rose to 6.4%, which the market did not anticipate. However, in the second half of the day, the market concluded that the likelihood of a second increase in the ECB's key rate remains high and that the American currency has already exhausted its positive factors. Thus, purely on technical grounds, the euro can freely continue its upward movement. On the hourly timeframe, the monthly flat has ended, and a new upward trend has formed. Therefore, we expect further growth of the European currency.
On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced quite a few trading signals that novice traders could easily capitalize on. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing short positions to be opened. A few hours later, the price bounced from the 1.1461-1.1474 area, allowing traders to close short positions at a profit and open long positions. By the end of the day, the euro returned to the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing longs to be closed with a good profit.
On the hourly timeframe, the price has exited the sideways channel it spent a month in. Considering all recent global events, we believe that the European currency should continue to show steady growth. Recently, the market has largely ignored all factors in favor of the euro, so a "settling of accounts" may begin, bringing the pair's exchange rate to fair value.
On Monday, novice traders may open shorts targeting 1.1461-1.1474 if the price consolidates below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. New longs can be opened on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1584-1.1594.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Monday, only minor publications are scheduled in the Eurozone, while the important ISM manufacturing index will be released in the U.S., which is expected to interest the market. Thus, volatility may increase in the second half of the day.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
