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03.08.202606:25 Analisis Forex & Kajian: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on August 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Relevance up to 23:00 2026-08-03 UTC--4

Trade Analysis for Friday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

Exchange Rates 03.08.2026 analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to both correct and resume a new upward trend. In the first half of the day, the market was hit by a new wave of disappointment as Eurozone inflation rose only to 2.9% (in line with forecasts), significantly reducing hawkish expectations for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Additionally, the unemployment rate in Germany rose to 6.4%, which the market did not anticipate. However, in the second half of the day, the market concluded that the likelihood of a second increase in the ECB's key rate remains high and that the American currency has already exhausted its positive factors. Thus, purely on technical grounds, the euro can freely continue its upward movement. On the hourly timeframe, the monthly flat has ended, and a new upward trend has formed. Therefore, we expect further growth of the European currency.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

Exchange Rates 03.08.2026 analysis

On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday produced quite a few trading signals that novice traders could easily capitalize on. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing short positions to be opened. A few hours later, the price bounced from the 1.1461-1.1474 area, allowing traders to close short positions at a profit and open long positions. By the end of the day, the euro returned to the 1.1527-1.1531 area, allowing longs to be closed with a good profit.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the price has exited the sideways channel it spent a month in. Considering all recent global events, we believe that the European currency should continue to show steady growth. Recently, the market has largely ignored all factors in favor of the euro, so a "settling of accounts" may begin, bringing the pair's exchange rate to fair value.

On Monday, novice traders may open shorts targeting 1.1461-1.1474 if the price consolidates below the 1.1527-1.1531 area. New longs can be opened on a bounce from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, targeting 1.1584-1.1594.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1267-1.1275, 1.1366-1.1377, 1.1461-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, and 1.1745-1.1754. On Monday, only minor publications are scheduled in the Eurozone, while the important ISM manufacturing index will be released in the U.S., which is expected to interest the market. Thus, volatility may increase in the second half of the day.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

  1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more trades are opened around a level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat, any pair can generate a multitude of false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
  4. When trading based on MACD signals on the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to do so only when volatility is high and the trend is supported by a trend line or channel.
  5. If two levels are too close to each other (from 5 to 20 pips), they should be regarded as a support or resistance area.
  6. After a 15-pip move in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to break even.

What the Charts Show:

Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals. Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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