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High oil prices are feeding inflation fears and strengthening forecasts for Fed rate hikes, undermining gold. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran and Trump's tariffs are supporting the US dollar, contributing to the decline.
Gold (XAU/USD) remained under sellers' pressure for the second day in a row on Friday, gradually approaching the round $4,000 level.
The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran is keeping oil prices high, increasing inflationary risks and reinforcing expectations of a longer period of elevated interest rates in the US. Against this backdrop, the US dollar has held the strong gains seen this week, updating a monthly high on Thursday — a key factor reducing gold's appeal.
On Thursday, US military forces said they had completed another series of strikes on Iran, now continuing for the 13th night in a row. According to a statement from US Central Command (CENTCOM), the strikes hit "Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communications sites, coastal observation posts, and maritime infrastructure." The attack aimed to further reduce the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest attacks come amid an intensifying regional confrontation, with Iran and its allies striking US military sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
An additional source of tension has been actions by Iran-backed Houthis, who attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea as part of their announced naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. This effectively expands the Middle East conflict to the second key strategic maritime trade route, increasing fears of supply disruptions and pushing oil prices toward new highs.
Investors remain worried that persistently high oil prices could again intensify inflationary pressure and force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to stick to a tighter monetary stance.
Adding to this fundamental backdrop, data released on Thursday showed initial jobless claims in the US fell to their lowest level since September 1969, signalling a resilient labor market. Such dynamics give Fed officials latitude to focus on fighting inflation, strengthening the case for at least one more key rate increase before the end of the year.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump announced large new import tariffs of 10–12.5% on goods from 60 key trading partners, affecting 99.4% of total US imports. These steps raise the risk of a full-scale global trade war, suppress investor appetite for risk assets and further bolster the dollar's reserve-currency status.
Against this background, the odds are high that the XAU/USD correction from the two-week high recorded on Wednesday will continue, especially as market attention gradually shifts to next week's FOMC meeting.
From a technical perspective, an unsuccessful attempt to hold above the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), followed by the subsequent decline, indicates the recent upward bounce from the ~$3,960 area has been exhausted. Downside pressure is further confirmed by the RSI readings, which remain in negative territory.
On the daily chart, the oscillators are also negative, showing a bearish advantage. Therefore, the path of least resistance for gold is downward.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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