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The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward move on Monday but failed again. Volatility on the first trading day of the week was virtually nonexistent, with no significant geopolitical, fundamental, or macroeconomic events. In the evening, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, but this time she did not provide anything significant to the markets. Consequently, traders were forced to work with what they had, and no new information was available.
Overall, the euro remains at a "low," completely fatigued. In the last two weeks, euro quotes have literally plunged, and this decline could have been triggered by any number of factors. We continue to believe that the pair's drop was driven by speculative positions or insider information related to the conflict in the Middle East. It should be noted that the market is dominated by large capital, which is not obliged to necessarily respond to any events or news. Market makers can trade in any direction, even in ways that contradict geopolitical or macroeconomic factors. Thus, not every movement is logical. When we see illogical movement, there is no need to invent factors to explain it. It is simply vital to understand that the movement is irrational or that it may be a trap laid by large capital for retail traders to seize their liquidity.
This week, several important reports on the labor market are expected in the United States. The focus should certainly be on the Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Last month, the market reacted vigorously to a high Non-Farm Payrolls figure, but how it will perform this month is anyone's guess. We should remind ourselves that in recent weeks the market has been very selective in its responses to events. For example, it ignored the tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone but reacted to the possible future rate hikes in the US for a week and a half. The Non-Farm Payrolls report was taken into account, while the fact of the intermediate deal between Iran and the US was ignored. This means the market is now overlooking all factors that point to a rising euro. Therefore, we consider the current movement irrational. Initially, the dollar rose amid complex geopolitical factors, and now it is rising on softer ones. The ECB has already begun tightening, while the Federal Reserve might only begin around September. Yet, the market is only factoring in Fed rate hikes that do not yet exist.
We believe there are no grounds for further decline in the pair, but the market might find them. Essentially, any new violation of the ceasefire in the Middle East could provoke a rise in the US dollar, as could strong labor market data. Hawkish statements from Fed representatives would further contribute to this trend. Currently, the market is positioned for purchases of the US currency, so all news is viewed through a bearish lens by traders. Thus, even though the euro has no solid reasons for further declines, it could continue to fall against the dollar. Interestingly, technical signals for a trend reversal have been forming for several weeks, and the market has been ignoring them as well.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 30 is 61 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1365 and 1.1487 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned downward, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area and has already formed two bullish divergences, warning again of a possible end to the downward trend.
The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend, presumably a correction within a broader upward trend, as is clearly seen on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, it was first geopolitical factors and then the Fed's hawkish stance that provided strong support for the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1292. Long positions above the moving average remain relevant with targets at 1.1536 and 1.1597. Bears are currently exceptionally strong for no apparent reason.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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