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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline, showing no signs of even correcting. Over the past week, Bitcoin has lost 17% of its value, while Ethereum has dropped 21%. One can argue for as long as one likes about why the cryptocurrency market is falling again, but we have constantly warned about this for the last three months, even without considering geopolitics, inflation, and the changing mood of the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, Strategy, the company once led by Michael Saylor, whose name is associated with the company's strategy for accumulating bitcoins, has acquired a new batch of coins. This time, the purchase amounted to 1,550 BTC and occurred a week after selling 32 BTC, marking the first instance in history in which Strategy sold rather than bought. As we can see, Strategy's new purchases do not prevent Bitcoin from falling, as institutional investors have been more inclined to sell than buy in recent months. The company now holds over 800,000 coins, prompting a reasonable question: What does the company plan to do with them in the future? Strategy does not wish to sell bitcoins; will it continue to buy indefinitely?
However, we are more interested in the dynamics of Bitcoin itself than in Strategy's long-term plans. Due to the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East, demand for risk assets continues to decline. Yields on U.S. Treasuries are rising, and the Federal Reserve may raise the key rate this year, despite Kevin Warsh's arrival. As we have mentioned, we do not consider these factors to be the cause of Bitcoin's decline in recent weeks. However, it is undeniable that they do not encourage investors to buy. Saylor himself believes that the AI boom is to blame for Bitcoin's decline. The only remaining question is, how long will it last? There is an opinion that the AI sector is awaiting a financial crash, as huge investments have been poured into it, but whether they will pay off is a big question. The U.S. stock market is extremely overheated, and many experts predict a significant decline in the very near future. Thus, we currently see no grounds for a new "bullish" trend for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend beginning. A new "bearish" FVG pattern formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, so this area serves as a POI (Point of Interest) for traders in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, patterns may also be forming, but the movement is currently so strong that we would recommend trading on higher timeframes, such as the daily.
The daily timeframe continues to show a downward trend that began last August. The key pattern for selling has been and remains the "bearish" order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the movement provoked by this signal may be strong and prolonged. We do not consider it complete, as there are no signs of a conclusion of the downward trend in either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline, targeting $1,391 and $788. An upward correction can be anticipated when at least some bullish pattern or other sign of an upward price reversal forms, at least on the 4-hour timeframe. Among the new POI for short positions, we highlight the FVG in the area of $1,624 - $1,720.
CHOCH – change of the trend structure.
Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.
FVG – area of price inefficiency. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to these areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it; instead, it breaks through it impulsively and then tests it from the other side.
OB – order block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to collect liquidity for forming their position in the opposite direction.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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