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Today, the American dollar plummeted after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. This event, resulting from tense but ultimately successful diplomatic efforts, instantly reflected on global financial markets, causing shock and uncertainty. Currency traders and investors worldwide closely monitored the developments, and the news of the ceasefire acted as a catalyst for sharp movements.
In turn, Iran stated that the ceasefire agreement guarantees the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 2 weeks, helping ensure increased oil supplies to global markets. This promise became a key factor influencing the dynamics of the dollar. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil transportation, has recently been under close scrutiny due to rising tensions in the region.
The anticipated increase in oil supplies is expected to stabilize energy prices and reduce inflationary pressure, which, in turn, has put pressure on safe havens, such as the U.S. dollar. Investors seeking higher risk and potential returns began redirecting their assets into other classes where greater growth is expected amid reduced geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.9% to a four-week low as the agreement led to a drop in Treasury yields, further diminishing demand for the currency. The dollar weakened the most against risk-sensitive currencies, such as the euro and the British pound. The Chinese yuan rose to a three-year high against the dollar following the news of the ceasefire. The New Zealand dollar also gained further momentum after news that the central bank was discussing raising interest rates at its Wednesday meeting.
The least resilient path is still one that favors risk growth, which pushes the dollar down while risk assets rise. The crucial test for the markets will be whether vessels can safely navigate the strait and the likelihood of a tangible ceasefire agreement on paper.
However, despite the agreement's positive nature, its long-term consequences remain unclear. A two-week ceasefire may be merely a temporary respite, not a full resolution of the conflict. Financial markets, sensitive to any signs of instability, will continue to closely monitor the situation, and any new escalations could trigger a rapid recovery in the dollar.
Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on taking the 1.1705 level. Only then can they aim for a test at 1.1745. From there, they could potentially climb to 1.1780, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1810. If the trading instrument declines to around 1.1670, I expect major buyers to take action. If no one is there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low of 1.1635 or open long positions from 1.1600.
Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then can they aim for 1.3475, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3520. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3420. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, driving GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3390 with the potential to reach 1.3370.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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