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Análisis Forex

Fundamental analysis

31.03.202607:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Focus on March 31? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, but most are not the most significant, especially under the current circumstances. In Germany, for example, retail sales, the unemployment rate, and jobless claims will be published. The market has been ignoring US Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate for the past month and a half, so we believe the German data have a very low chance of prompting a market reaction. The Eurozone will publish a more important Consumer Price Index for March, indicating that inflation may spike to 2.7%. A sharp and strong increase in inflation could guarantee a tightening of the ECB's monetary policy. This would have been very favorable for the euro in the past, in peacetime. However, the market may not even notice this report now. In the US, the JOLTS report on job openings for February will be released. However, a weak figure from this report is unlikely to provoke a decline in the dollar, which is currently only correcting slightly at times.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, only a few speeches by Fed officials are worth noting, but Jerome Powell spoke last night, stating that the Fed's monetary policy is well-positioned to wait and see. In other words, the Fed is not planning to lower or raise rates anytime soon. The Fed's position right now is simply a pause in monetary easing, placing the dollar at quite a disadvantage compared to the euro and the pound. It would be disadvantageous, were it not for geopolitics, which literally drive traders and investors to buy the safe dollar. We still believe that the fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomics have minimal impact on the currency market at this time.

General Conclusions:

Throughout the second trading day of the week, market movements can be observed, as news from the Middle East can arrive at any time and has recently been quite contradictory. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1455-1.1474, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3203-1.3212. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and prolonged growth of the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but the market remains fully focused on geopolitics, which supports only the safe dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.

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