¡Nuestro equipo cuenta con más de 7,000,000 operadores!
Cada día, trabajamos juntos para mejorar las operaciones. Obtenemos grandes resultados y seguimos adelante.
El reconocimiento de millones de operadores en todo el mundo es el mejor agradecimiento a nuestro trabajo! ¡Usted hizo su elección y haremos todo lo que esté a nuestro alcance para satisfacer sus expectativas!
¡Juntos somos un gran equipo!
InstaSpot. ¡Orgulloso de trabajar para usted!
¡Actor, 6 veces ganador del torneo UFC y un verdadero héroe!
El hombre que se hizo a sí mismo. El hombre que sigue nuestro camino.
El secreto detrás del éxito de Taktarov es el constante movimiento hacia el objetivo.
¡Revele todo los lados de su talento!
Descubra, intente, fracase, ¡pero nunca se rinda!
InstaSpot. ¡Su historia de éxito comienza aquí!
The resumption of the gold rally has triggered an unprecedentedly generous auction from major banks, raising their forecasts for XAU/USD. So far, the most bullish estimate came from Bank of America, which envisioned the precious metal reaching $2,400 per ounce by the end of 2024. Citi's new statement about $3,000 stirs the imagination. Even though, according to the company, such a forecast is not considered a baseline scenario.
For this scenario to materialize, two events must occur. The first is a global recession that will force the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate not to 3% in 2024–2025, as currently assumed, but to 1%. As a result, the assets of money market funds, which rely on high borrowing costs, will begin to shrink. Capital flowing into gold ETFs will allow the precious metal to spread its wings.
Dynamics of assets and capital flows to money market funds
The second event capable of pushing gold prices to $3,000 per ounce is a doubling of central banks' gold purchases. In 2024, regulators acquired 1,000 tons, only 45 tons less than the previous year's record. If the figure increases to 2,000 tons, this demand factor will compete with the jewelry industry, which accounts for about 50% of the world's gold demand.
In my view, both events are indeed unlikely. Citi agrees, forecasting an average gold price of $2,150 in the second half of 2024.
However, Goldman Sachs claims that copper, gold, and oil will be the main beneficiaries of the Fed's rate cut this year. The futures market expects a 100 bps drop to 4.5%, which will positively impact demand due to easier financial conditions and the acceleration of the U.S. economy.
Thus, medium-term prospects for XAU/USD seem bullish. However, at present, buyers are armed with the weakening of the U.S. dollar amid the convergence of market expectations with the FOMC's rate forecasts. Both derivatives and the Fed signal that the start of monetary expansion will take place in June, with estimates ranging from 75 to 100 bps.
Dynamics of forecasts for the Fed rate
If the minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) do not frighten USD bears, its retreat will continue, strengthening the tailwind for XAU/USD. The only thing that could dampen the precious metal's mood is further acceleration of inflation, but this data will only be available to the public in a few weeks.
Technically, on the daily chart of gold, the Three Indians pattern has been realized. It correctly identified the exhaustion of the corrective movement. Currently, the market is returning to a bullish trend. If gold stays above moving averages and the fair value at $2,022, purchases towards $2,060 and $2,082 per ounce will become relevant.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaSpot lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaSpot, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
