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The market was looking forward to a new trading week after a strong bullish momentum on Friday. As a result, Bitcoin reached the $24.5k level and gradually approached the final consolidation above $25k. However, following the results of February 21, the $25k level remains untouched, and BTC is declining more often.
Bitcoin fails to gain a foothold above $25k rapidly, and given the increasing tension in the stock market, the asset risks not having time to consolidate above the key resistance level. At the same time, it is too early to talk about the end of the BTC upward trend, and the asset has every chance to move closer to the $26k–$27k area.
The information campaign from America's largest banks regarding the stock market continues. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the S&P 500 stock index may lose up to 26% of capitalization in the coming months and bottom around $3,000.
BBG, who are also skeptical about the short-term outlook for SPX, are warning of a likely Bitcoin pullback. Experts explain the decline in the price of cryptocurrency by an increased correlation with stock indices and a likely tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the SPX index formed a large red candle and reached the lower boundary of the $4,000 support zone. The technical metrics of the asset on the daily chart indicate a continuation of the downward movement of the stock instrument.
At the same time, Bitcoin remained stable against the backdrop of the SPX index but eventually confirmed the correlation with the index and also moved to a local decline. The results on February 21 prove that the relationship between BTC and SPX is still strong, and with a high degree of probability, the cryptocurrency will follow the stock index.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts are recording a large outflow of BTC coins from cryptocurrency exchanges. This confirms the fact that the period of accumulation continues in one form or another. Also, a large outflow of BTC eliminates the possibility of a quick sale and reduces the pressure on the price.
Glassnode analysts also note that more than 50% of all BTC in circulation have not moved for at least two years. This confirms the fundamental value of the cryptocurrency and the long-term faith in the asset of most investors. At the same time, it is reported that the number of "whale" addresses with a balance of 1,000 BTC has reached the 2019 low.
This is a negative signal, as large investors are the main catalyst for Bitcoin's bullish rally, as happened in January 2023. It may also indicate a lack of new big players in the crypto market, which is also bad for the industry's capitalization.
Over the past six days, Bitcoin has retested the $25k level five times. In addition to the persistence of the bulls, it is worth noting the dynamics of increasing price lows, which may eventually lead to the formation of a wedge and its bullish breakdown.
According to the results of February 21, buyers failed to gain a foothold above $25k, and the price, as expected, went to retest the lower border of the fluctuation area. The $23.8k–$24.1k area is a powerful support zone, and until BTC makes its bearish breakdown, the bullish idea remains relevant.
Bitcoin technical indicators on the 1D timeframe point to a decline: RSI, stochastic and MACD are moving in a downward direction. The 1H chart shows the first signs of buying activity. The stochastic oscillator tried to form a bullish crossover, which indicates an increase in volumes near $24k.
Bitcoin showed weakness and followed the SPX index in a downward direction. In addition to dependence on the stock index, the downward movement of the cryptocurrency was influenced by an unsuccessful retest of the $25k resistance for several days in a row.
Most likely, a local consolidation and resumption of the assault on the $25k–$25.2k area will happen in the near term. A further decline in SPX may have a negative impact on the cryptocurrency, but as long as the asset holds the $23.8k level, the bullish idea will be relevant.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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