09.10.202609:19 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Waves of bad AI news intensify

US equity futures rose, and Asian markets gained after fresh revenue data from OpenAI suggested the weakness in the tech sector on Wall Street could be limited. S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.5%, Asian stocks gained about 0.3%, and futures point to a higher open for European equities. A pullback in Brent provided additional relief. However, I view this as a bounce after an extreme headline reaction rather than a durable shift in sentiment.

The sell-off yesterday was triggered by a Financial Times report: OpenAI's annual revenue, as recalculated, appeared about $20 billion below earlier public figures. The chip-makers index fell by 3.4%, and tech names were the main drag on the S&P 500. OpenAI still targets roughly $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026, mainly from corporate sales. By comparison, Anthropic's annualized revenue had already reached $65 billion by the end of July.

That spread in top-line figures can move stocks sharply. The market stopped valuing AI as a concept long ago and now prices it based on return on invested capital. Losers will be companies where data-center costs grow faster than revenue; winners will be those whose corporate contracts are already converting into dollars on the bottom line.

The real test is earnings season starting next week. The biggest buyers of AI compute must show they'll keep writing those large checks. Over the past year, waves of negative AI headlines have tended to last only a few days before sentiment recovered, but now these negative waves are arriving more frequently.

Commodities and the bond market painted a softer picture. Brent fell by 1.2% to $102.95 per barrel after Donald Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the November midterms. Treasuries returned to buying, and yields eased. Gold gained 1.1% to trade around $4,175/oz. Recall that 10-year yields were near 5.31% yesterday, so the pullback gives the metal some breathing room, though it remains below mid-September levels near $4,350.

In my view, today will likely trade sideways with heightened headline sensitivity. If earnings season shows revenue catching up to AI spending, the tech sector will recover, and the Nasdaq 100, which closed at record highs, could make new highs. But if major corporates signal caution on capex, yesterday's chip-maker drop may be the start of a deeper correction, especially if 10-year yields stay above 5%.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the resistance level of $7,793. That would show upside momentum and open a move toward $7,810. Holding $7,824 is also a priority for bulls to reinforce their position. If the price moves lower amid a drop in risk appetite, buyers must step in around $7,774. A break below that level would likely push the index down to $7,756 and open the way to $7,737.