24.08.202609:34 Analisis Forex & Kajian: 28 Tons in a Week: Inflow to Gold ETFs Reaches High Since January Record

Gold has risen to a three-month high, gaining 1.2 percent today and surpassing $4,650 per ounce. Silver remains relatively unchanged at $68.97.

The reason for the rally remains the U.S. Treasury's intervention in the bond market, which has revived concerns about the weakening dollar and pushed investors toward alternative assets. Last week, the metal completed its third consecutive weekly increase, adding more than 5 percent following the department's unexpected announcement to increase the repurchase of long-term government debt, which sharply lowered yields and the American currency.

It is noteworthy that the market perceives these events not as a technical operation but as a signal of a deeper issue. Efforts to control borrowing costs through direct intervention have raised fears that U.S. policy may undermine confidence in the dollar and make other investments more attractive.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent not only did not soften his position but also went further, stating at the end of the week that he is ready to expand the buyback of higher-yielding securities. He also indicated that the administration will soon introduce a fiscal initiative to combat the highest borrowing costs in years.

Investor inflows into gold have increased significantly, with gold-backed exchange-traded funds adding over 28 tons last week, the highest since January, when the rapid rally pushed gold to a record just below $5,600 per ounce. While there is room for the rally to continue, some consolidation after the recent sharp movement is likely necessary.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at $4,656. This will allow them to target $4,708, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,738. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to regain control over $4,607. If successful, a breakout from this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,546, with the prospect of reaching $4,481.