30.06.202615:46 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Market about to complete bear cycle, but key reversal level has not been reached yet

While Bitcoin is struggling below $60,000, more market participants are watching various metrics for signs of a final crypto market drop in the coming months — or even days. For example, CryptoQuant has, for the first time in a long while, flagged signs that the bear cycle may be nearing its end.

Their MVRV indicator for Bitcoin long-term holders fell to 1.24, the lowest level in three years. This metric shows the ratio of the market value of coins held by long-term holders to their acquisition cost, and historically, such low readings have occurred near the end of bear markets, when the asset trades close to the cost basis of the most patient investors. Importantly, the fall in MVRV today is driven by Bitcoin's price decline, not by large-scale selling from the holders themselves — in other words, the metric dropped because the asset got cheaper, not because committed investors began unloading positions.

A second signal confirms this view: the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached a new record, topping 16 million coins. Despite the prolonged correction and prices slipping below $60,000, this investor category is not only refraining from selling but is continuing to accumulate. That aligns with earlier data we recorded: transfers from long-term holders to exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since 2015. The most convictionary participants are acting like "strong hands" at the end of a cycle — accumulating from those who capitulate under pressure. A record 16 million coins in cold storage means the on-chain supply available to the market is tightening, which is a fundamental bullish support for a future recovery.

However, CryptoQuant also marks a clear boundary beyond which the optimistic scenario breaks down. The key level is the average purchase price of long-term holders, around $48,400. As long as Bitcoin trades above that mark, the end-of-bear?cycle scenario remains plausible. But if the price falls below it and long-term holders begin active selling, that would be a signal of true capitulation.

So, the market has reached a fork: if the $59,000–$60,000 area holds, current prices may represent a late stage of the bear market and an attractive long?term entry point. A downside break accompanied by mass selling by holders would open the door to final capitulation.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $60,600, which opens a straight path to $62,600 and then to $64,000; a break above that would signal attempts to re-establish the bull market. On a decline, I expect buyers at $58,500. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $56,100. The farthest target would be around $53,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,582 opens a direct path to $1,645. The farther target is the high near $1,725; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. During a downward move, I expect buyers at $1,515. A move back below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,433, with the farthest target around $1,338.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.