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As of the time of writing on Monday, gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $4,035, down 0.97%, as investors have reduced their exposure to safe-haven assets following signs of improving relations between the United States and Iran.
Following an exchange of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, a U.S. official stated on Sunday that Washington and Tehran had agreed to refrain from further attacks in order to ensure the free passage of commercial shipping. According to Axios, both sides plan to resume negotiations in Doha on Tuesday to continue discussions on the issues outlined in their Memorandum of Understanding.
According to Reuters, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, citing the state news agency IRNA, said that $6 billion of the $12 billion in Iranian assets held in Qatar should be released. This move could be interpreted as a confidence-building measure ahead of the upcoming round of U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Despite the easing tensions, markets remain cautious. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that responsibility for security in the Strait of Hormuz lies entirely with Tehran and warned that any attempts to bypass Iran's preferred shipping route could trigger a new wave of tensions. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global energy supplies pass, making investors highly sensitive to any risks of supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, traders continue to assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Higher energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, supporting expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. This reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate hike as early as September is currently estimated at approximately 48%.
For better trading opportunities, market participants should focus on the U.S. June employment report, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is scheduled for release on Thursday. Economists expect the U.S. economy to have added 114,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. These figures could significantly influence expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a downward trend. Oscillators are in negative territory, confirming that sellers continue to hold the advantage. The nearest support is located just above the psychological $4,000 level, in the $4,015–4,020 level. A break below this level would expose the June low. To regain upside momentum, bulls must first push the price above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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