11.06.202612:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Rising US-Iran Tensions and Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike Limit Gains in Gold

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on its moderate recovery from the lows recorded earlier on Thursday, which marked the lowest levels since November 2025. The precious metal remains near the $4,100 level amid a mixed fundamental backdrop.

The US dollar continues to face pressure after softer core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data eased concerns about runaway inflation, providing some support for the precious metal.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric, coupled with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, is supporting the dollar and limiting gold's upward potential.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, the core CPI, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, slowed to 0.2% in May from 0.4% in the previous month. On an annual basis, the reading came in at 2.9%, matching market expectations. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation accelerated from 3.8% in April to 4.2% year-over-year during the reporting period, reaching its highest level in three years amid a 23.5% increase in energy prices.

Additional pressure stems from geopolitical risks, including the possibility of further escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to support oil prices.

Iran announced the blockade of the strait following a new wave of US strikes ordered by President Donald Trump. The country's military leadership stated that it is prepared to deliver a strong and decisive response to any US actions in the region. These developments helped oil prices recover after reaching a two-month low on Tuesday, reinforcing inflation expectations and strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Against this backdrop, conditions remain in place for higher US Treasury yields, which support the dollar and suggest that downward pressure on gold is likely to prevail. For better trading opportunities, investors should await the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which may provide greater clarity regarding the Fed's next monetary policy steps. At the same time, developments in the Middle East could increase market volatility, affecting the dollar's performance and creating additional trading opportunities in the gold market.

From a technical perspective, the recent break below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), along with the decline to a new February low, strengthens the bearish outlook for XAU/USD.

Oscillators remain in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating that the downward momentum is slowing and that a corrective rebound may develop. Immediate resistance is located near the $4,250 level. The path of least resistance remains to the downside, and any corrective recovery may be viewed as an opportunity to establish short positions.