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Rumors of a US-Iran deal pushed the S&P 500 to fresh record highs. A Bloomberg scoop says the agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month. Lowered geopolitical risk, blockbuster corporate profits, particularly from chipmakers, and muted volatility are allowing the equity market to pleasantly surprise investors.
Yardeni Research argues that the S&P 500 rally is driven by blockbuster earnings rather than speculation. The market is not in a bubble, and a forward P/E of 22 looks reasonable. The firm coined the term FEMO — "fabulous earnings momentum" — to replace FOMO ("fear of missing out"). Yardeni sees the broad index reaching 10,000 by decade-end, roughly a 33% gain from current levels.
S&P 500 and expected EPS dynamics
Goldman Sachs shares the view of Yardeni Research. The bank raised its S&P 500 target from 7,600 to 8,000, arguing the rally rests on expectations of stronger corporate profits following impressive Q1 reports.
S3 Partners LLC points to short sellers as a potential new driver of the rally. The firm estimates aggregate short positions in US and Canadian equities have risen by about $100bn since late April amid the protracted Middle East conflict, bringing the total to a record of $2.13 trillion. As geopolitical risk recedes on the back of a US-Iran deal, speculators will likely cover net shorts, which would add fuel to the S&P 500's upward move.
Philadelphia semiconductor index dynamics
For now, the market is obsessed with buying chipmakers amid global shortages and rising prices. The frenzy exceeds even the Magnificent Seven boom. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 82% year-to-date and recorded the best first-100-days performance on record. The previous high dates back to 1995, several years before the dot-com bubble.
SanDisk shares have jumped by 570% in 2026, Intel is up more than threefold. Samsung, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix have entered the $1 trillion market-cap club.
Overall, bullish sentiment dominates equities. Investors do not believe that the broad market is in a bubble. Banks and asset managers publish positive forecasts, and short-covering could be the next rally catalyst.
Technically, the S&P 500's uptrend is gaining strength on the daily chart, visible in the widening gap between prices and moving averages. The tactical focus remains on buying pullbacks toward the previously stated target of 7,700. Key support levels are the pivot points at 7,460 and 7,415.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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