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Undoubtedly, after such a turn of events, the European Parliament demanded explanations from Washington regarding its new trade policy. While clarifications have not been received, the European Parliament has decided to suspend the ratification of the trade deal with the U.S.
It is worth noting that the tariff rates set by Trump only appear simple on paper. In reality, the situation with them is much more complicated. For example, economists calculated that the weighted average tariff on EU goods in the U.S. before the U.S. Supreme Court's decision was 15.3%. After the repeal of tariffs last April, it became 8.3%. And under the new rates based on the Trade Act, the average tariff will be 13.2%. If the 2025 tariffs are illegal, their repeal should lower the average rate to 8.3%. Yet Trump is asking Europe and other countries worldwide to immediately agree to the increased tariff rate.
At the moment, it is difficult to say whether the European Union agrees to the new tariff structure, which is radically different from the previous one. Even if they are agreeable, Brussels does not understand precisely how or for how long the new tariffs will apply. After all, under the Trade Act, they can remain in effect for only 150 days. What will happen after 150 days? I already mentioned that Trump could use any other law to impose new tariffs. Therefore, no one can know what will happen in 5 months.
This is why the European Union demands explanations, and the text of the trade agreement now needs serious corrections. How can the European Parliament ratify an agreement if the terms have changed?
Trump himself, by the way, called on all the countries of the world on Saturday not to oppose the new tariff rate and to disregard the Supreme Court's decision. In simple terms, Trump is telling the world that only he will decide how much to pay and to whom. And other countries should silently accept his ultimatums. As for the decisions of "some courts," that is an internal matter for America, and other states should not interfere.
I should also remind you that the Greenland issue remains unresolved. Trump lowered his pressure on the Danish island after negotiations with Mark Rutte, but no one knows what Rutte promised the American president. The European Parliament was "freezing" the ratification even during Trump's attacks on Greenland. Given this development, the agreement will likely never be ratified.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend can stretch up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect an increase in quotes in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c can be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe that it is now advisable to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.
The wave analysis of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective wave set may soon conclude, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise seeking opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-1.50.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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