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The longer Donald Trump remains at the helm of the United States, the more analysts conclude that the dollar will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. In fact, I touch upon the figure of Donald Trump in almost every one of my reviews, not because I have any personal dislike for the American president, but because I genuinely believe that Trump's policies are the primary reason for the decline of the American currency. Therefore, at least until the end of Trump's presidential term, we can expect only a decline in the US dollar.
Trump has launched a process that will be very difficult to stop. His policies in areas such as trade, sanctions, immigration, and national security are leading the world to turn away from the US dollar. I have already written about how many central banks around the world have started reducing their dollar reserves, and international investors are increasingly choosing non-American securities. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, investors have heightened their demand for the safest assets—gold and silver. As a result, both precious metals have shown record increases in value. For the first time since 1996, foreign banks hold more gold than American currency in their reserves.
Another point of concern is the United States' ever-growing national debt. Despite promises to reduce the debt, under Trump, it may increase by several trillion dollars. Ongoing pressure on the Fed and Jerome Powell personally is causing investors to abandon the dollar, as no one wants to hold a currency that is likely to depreciate. If the Fed loses its independence and becomes politically dependent, Trump will dictate interest rates. In that case, he will lower them to economically unjustifiable levels, and the dollar will decline further. Clearly, investors understand this and try to offload US currency whenever possible.
The trade war will only exacerbate the situation for the American currency. Trump continues to use trade tariffs as a primary tool of political pressure, and many countries understand that tomorrow the head of the White House may deem their territories "critically important" for the national security of the United States." In my opinion, the decline of the American currency will continue.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. The policies of Donald Trump and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend segment could reach the 25-figure mark. At present, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of a global wave 5; therefore, I expect an increase in quotes in the first half of 2026. However, in the short term, I anticipate a downward wave (or series of waves), as the structure a-b-c-d-e also looks complete. In the near future, my readers can look for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% retracements on the Fibonacci scale.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended appearance. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the building of a corrective wave set, after which the upward trend will resume. Thus, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new long positions. Under Trump, the British pound has every chance of reaching 1.45-1.50 $. Trump himself welcomes a decline in the dollar's exchange rate. All his actions have a dual effect: lowering the dollar and addressing internal, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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