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*) see also: trading indicators for XAU/USD
The price of gold rose significantly during the Asian trading session on Monday, despite an increase in U.S. Treasury yields. Typically, since gold does not generate income, it becomes a less attractive asset when real yields on other assets, especially U.S. government bonds, rise. However, this time the situation is reversed. Gold is increasing in price, reflecting investor uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook. Following the release of disappointing labor market reports and declining consumer confidence (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index), market expectations have shifted towards a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, making gold more appealing.
The XAU/USD pair reached 4078.00 at the start of European trading, signaling optimism among traders. The increased interest in gold is driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the future of the American economy. Some market participants are betting on further monetary policy easing, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and boosts demand for it.
However, there are several risk factors for the price of gold. One of them is the possible resolution of the prolonged U.S. government crisis ("shutdown"), which could redirect funds back into riskier assets and weaken demand for safe-haven instruments like gold. Another factor is improvements in relations between Washington and Beijing. Specifically, it was reported that China announced a temporary lift of the ban on approving "dual-use" exports until November 27, 2026. Earlier, China had suspended export restrictions on some rare earth metals and lithium battery components.
Additionally, President Donald Trump stated that relations with India are improving, that India has reduced its purchases of Russian oil, and that he intends to visit the country next year.
On Thursday and Friday, fresh U.S. inflation data will be released, providing the Fed and market participants with information on inflation dynamics, monetary policy prospects, and retail sales. A moderate increase in the overall CPI (+0.2%) and core CPI (+0.3%) is expected. These figures will influence expectations for future Fed rate decisions.
According to the CME FedWatch indicator, markets expect a possible rate cut of a quarter percent (25 basis points) in December with about a two-thirds probability.
Furthermore, if the U.S. government resumes operations, weekly unemployment claims data will also be published on Thursday.
Thus, the concluding days of the week may significantly influence market dynamics, including the dollar, precious metals, and stock market assets.
In summary, the outlook for gold remains positive due to high economic risks and uncertainty in the U.S.; however, the risks of the shutdown ending and improving trading conditions are diminishing the growth potential.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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