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Today, gold is attempting a recovery despite the broader strength of the U.S. dollar, which is undermining the global rebound in the precious metal.
U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the conclusion of a major trade agreement introducing baseline tariffs of 15% on most European goods exported to the United States. This development comes alongside recent news of a trade deal between the U.S. and Japan, as well as reports of renewed talks between U.S. and Chinese officials on Monday aimed at extending the trade truce. The combination of these updates is increasing investor interest in riskier assets.
Nevertheless, at present, it is advisable to refrain from active gold trading and wait for further signals regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The main focus should be on the two-day FOMC meeting beginning Tuesday, where the current interest rate is expected to be maintained amid a stable U.S. labor market and concerns that new tariffs could fuel inflation in the second half of the year. At the same time, President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his stance on interest rates, raising concerns about potential political pressure on the independent regulator. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Trump-appointed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have voiced support for a rate cut at the upcoming July meeting, creating added tension among dollar bulls.
Thus, the key event will be the FOMC's decision on Wednesday, along with Powell's subsequent statement and press conference, which should be closely analyzed for any indications of further rate cuts. In addition, investors will receive important U.S. macroeconomic data throughout the week that could significantly affect dollar dynamics and influence the precious metals market overall.
From a technical perspective, the break below Friday's low was seen as a key trigger for bearish momentum. However, oscillators on the daily chart remain mixed, and the inability to sustain a move below the $3316 level does not confirm a negative outlook. Therefore, selling positions should only be considered if the price falls below this support, potentially pushing it toward the $3300 round level and lower.
On the other hand, any upward move will face resistance near the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3350. A breakout above this level could trigger short-covering and lift gold toward the supply zone at $3371–3373. Continued buying beyond this area could pave the way for a move toward the $3400 psychological level and higher.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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