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The H1 chart for Crude Oil futures (#CL) shows a serious attempt to build fresh positive momentum. The price is currently trading at the 94.09 level after breaking out of and stabilizing above the corrective bearish channel, while currently testing pivotal daily resistance levels.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a primary bullish channel (blue) representing the overall trend, having previously entered a secondary bearish channel (pink/red)—a corrective path following a local peak near the second daily resistance level (Daily R2) at 96.14. Recently, the price successfully broke above the upper boundary of the pink bearish channel, demonstrating positive price action.
Interaction with Pivot Levels: Buyers managed to push the price to close above the Daily Pivot level (92.90) and continue the ascent to test the pivotal zone—comprising the Weekly Pivot and the first daily resistance (Daily R1)—situated between 93.85 and 94.28.
Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels
Key Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 94.28 (Daily R1, extending near the Weekly Pivot).
Resistance 2: 96.14 (Daily R2 and a nearby pivotal low/high).
Resistance 3: 97.52 (Daily R3). Key Support Levels:
First Support: 92.90 (Daily Pivot and the midline of the ascending channel).
Second Support: 91.04 (Daily S1).
Third Support: 89.66 (Daily S2 and the lower boundary of the main channel).
Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations
Bullish Scenario (Primary):
The bullish scenario is the most likely as long as the price trades above the Daily Pivot (92.90) and outside the broken descending channel.
Recommendation: Buy upon holding above 94.28 or following a successful retest of the 93.25–93.85 levels.
Technical Targets: A sustained breakout above 94.28 paves the way to target the previous high at 96.14, with an extension toward 97.52 as a secondary key target.
Stop Loss: A one-hour candle close below 92.65.
Bearish Corrective Scenario (Alternative):
This scenario activates if the price fails to break the current resistance zone and returns to trading within the descending channel.
Confirmation Condition: Breaking below the Daily Pivot (92.90) and closing beneath it.
Technical Targets: A return to test the first daily support level at 91.04.
Risk Management
It is advisable to monitor hourly closes near the 94.28 level to confirm the breakout, while carefully sizing positions and adhering to a risk limit of no more than 1% to 2% of capital.
The 4-hour (H4) chart for Crude Oil (#CL) contracts shows cautious trading alongside rising short-term positive momentum. The price is currently trading at 94.11, hovering near the Weekly Pivot level of 94.06, while attempting to break out of the minor bearish trend that has dominated recent trading.
Technical Analysis and Price Action
Price Channel Structure: Crude oil is trading within a primary bearish channel (blue) representing the distinct bearish corrective wave that began at the recent peak near the second weekly resistance (Weekly R2) at 106.40. Concurrently, a minor bearish channel (pink/red) is forming; however, the price is showing positive behavior, attempting to break above the minor channel's upper boundary and stabilize above the nearby trend line.
Interaction with Weekly Pivot Levels: The price rebounded strongly from the low recorded above the first weekly support (Weekly S1) at 87.08, rising gradually to stabilize around the Weekly Pivot at 94.06—a pivotal level that will determine the direction of future trading.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key Resistance Levels:
Resistance 1: 94.06 (Weekly Pivot and the upper boundary of the minor corrective channel).
Resistance 2: 99.42 (First Weekly Resistance - Weekly R1). Third Resistance: 106.40 level (Weekly R2).
Key Support Levels:
First Support: 92.25 – 90.95 pivot zone (recent intraday lows and the midline of the bearish channel).
Second Support: 87.08 level (Weekly S1).
Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations
Bullish Scenario (Primary):
This scenario materializes if the price achieves a stable 4-hour candle close above the 94.06 level and fully exits the pink bearish channel.
Recommendation: Buy following confirmation and stability above 94.06, or upon a successful retest of the 93.50 – 94.00 zone.
Technical Targets: A breakout paves the way to test the first weekly resistance level at 99.42 as the primary target, with a subsequent extension toward 102.50.
Stop Loss: A 4-hour candle close below 92.20.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative):
This scenario activates if the price fails to surpass the weekly pivot and rebounds downward from the channel's upper boundaries.
Validation Condition: Inability to break above 94.06 and a drop below the 92.25 level.
Technical Targets: A return to target the previous low at the first weekly support level (87.08). Risk Management
It is recommended to wait for the 4-hour candle to close, confirming a breakout above the weekly pivot level of 94.06, before entering new long positions, while strictly adhering to capital management principles and limiting risk to no more than 1%–2% of the portfolio.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
