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Brent trades around $114 a barrel and is heading toward a third straight weekly gain. Oil is up nearly 4% for the week, while WTI has climbed above $100. Intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia raised the risk of wider supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Iran-aligned Houthis said they recently struck the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and carried out deadly hits on an oil field and an airport in the kingdom. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters in Dhahran and asked employees to work from home after an alarm that was not immediately explained. These are no longer isolated episodes but a direct threat to the infrastructure of the region's main exporter.
The market fears fighting could spread around the Strait of Hormuz, where crude exports have recovered to nearly pre-war levels. Since the start of the year, Brent has risen by more than 85% due to the U.S.–Iran war, which is approaching its ninth month. Refined products are rising even faster — especially diesel — because Persian Gulf supplies remain constrained while Ukraine increases attacks on Russian refineries. Governments are dipping into stocks to smooth the shortfall.
The political backdrop also pushes prices higher. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. had "beat Iran" and threatened to go a bit further without specifying what he meant. Recall that The New York Times reported the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after next month's midterm elections. U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz said Washington is preparing for a protracted conflict that could remain stalemated for a year and that the fleet can sustain a blockade of Iranian ports for the foreseeable future, tightening economic pressure on Tehran.
That is why the price curve is rising across the board, not just in near contracts. Most traders interpret developments as a signal for higher prices for longer. That matters because the move also affects forward deliveries, meaning the market is pricing in a prolonged deficit rather than a brief spike.
Exporters with functioning logistics benefit from such dynamics, while energy importers and fuel consumers lose out. Expensive fuel is politically inconvenient for the Trump administration ahead of the elections, so it is trying to reduce prices — including via a diesel deal with Moscow.
I believe that until concrete diplomatic steps appear and given rising risks to Saudi Arabia, Brent will remain biased upward, and keeping prices above $110 looks the most likely scenario. Only a marked easing of tensions around Iran or new government releases of stocks would halt the rise.
As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would set up a move toward $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $109 area. In a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If that succeeds, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil to a $95 low, with a prospect of extending to $92.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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