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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade sluggishly on Thursday, as if doing someone a favor. Volatility has been a serious problem this week, and besides the weak moves, we also note a complete absence of any hint of a trend—even a local, intraday one. The price moves sideways with minimal amplitude. Thus, it is safe to say there have been virtually no movements this week. Of course, a local flat can end at any moment — because that is exactly how flats usually finish: when no one expects it. We understand traders are counting on help from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve next week, the US elections, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which should "suggest" the pair's direction. However, in practice the market may decide on a direction well before those events.
What can be said now? The Fed is unlikely to raise the key rate next week, the dot-plot will not be published, and Kevin Warsh never comments on the central bank's future moves. Thus the outcome of the Fed meeting will depend on the market itself — on how it interprets Warsh's remarks. If traders wish, they will find plenty of new "hawkish" hints in his speech and continue buying the dollar. It doesn't matter that, since the summer, the market has, in effect, priced in only one Fed tightening while completely ignoring ECB tightening.
The ECB meeting should also pass without incident. And the European currency should not expect support from the ECB. More precisely, the euro could get a favorable fundamental backdrop from hawkish remarks by Christine Lagarde. However, the market has already ignored two ECB tightening moves. Is there even a minimal chance that Lagarde's hawkish hints will strengthen the euro?
It makes little sense to forecast labor and payroll reports in advance. Forecasts for these releases are always published, but the actual data rarely match them. So guessing how many jobs were created in the US economy in October is like reading coffee grounds. The fact remains: the labor market is still weak, which can restrain the Fed's hawkish impulses — if they still persist.
Predicting the US elections is now much easier than predicting the Nonfarm Payrolls number. Practically no one doubts that the Republican Party will lose at least one chamber of Congress. Experts note, however, that US policy will not change even if Democrats win both chambers. Trump will continue to make most important decisions by executive order, and Democrats will not be able to impeach him. So life for Donald Trump will only become slightly more complicated, not radically different. Still, a Democratic victory could be viewed positively for the US currency. Under Trump, the dollar tends to fall, while strong opposition offers at least a chance that US policy could improve somewhat.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of October 23 is 53 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to move between 1.1149 and 1.1255 on Friday. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down, indicating another trend change. The CCI entered the oversold area five times and formed four bullish divergences, warning that the illogical downtrend may be ending. However, the market has so far reacted weakly to technical signals.
S1 – 1.1169
S2 – 1.1108
R1 – 1.1230
R2 – 1.1292
R3 – 1.1353
The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, but we still view the decline as a correction before a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions with targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant, with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1353.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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