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Today, Bitcoin returned above $82,000, gaining about 2.3% in early Asian trading. Ether rose ~3.7%, Solana more than 4.6%, and other tokens followed.
The driver is a partial return of risk appetite. Oil pulled back from a five-month high after signs that supplies from the Middle East have been holding despite the escalation between the US and Iran, and Brent fell roughly 2%. That reversed last week's dynamic, when Bitcoin lost about 3% along with an equity sell-off led by tech stocks amid renewed doubts about the payback from large AI investments. The chain is straightforward: cheaper oil eases inflationary fears, reducing rate pressure and helping risk-sensitive assets, including crypto.
But there is no institutional confirmation. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $228.6m in outflows last week after $681m the prior week—the second consecutive week of net redemptions. Oil also remains expensive, around $107/bl, and Bitcoin is still confined to the $80k–$85k range.
Treat today's rally as an oversold bounce after a large risk-off week. Until ETF inflows return, any recovery looks like a technical reaction to moves in oil and equities rather than a durable institutional bid. My view is that the move will likely run into the upper part of the current corridor, and if risk-appetite pressure returns, the market will re-test the lower bound of the range near $80,000.
Bitcoin: Price around 82,400 is squeezed between 82,100 and 82,900, and the plan centers on two mirror directions: full breakout and rebound scenarios. For buy positions, I look for a confirmed breakout above 82,900, targeting 83,500; I take profit and may reverse into a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Alternatively, if a drop below 82,500 fails to hold and price returns, buy the rebound, targeting 82,900 first and then 83,500.
For selling, the scenario is symmetric. A confirmed break below 82,500 opens a short position targeting 82,100, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If an upside breakout above 82,900 fails and price returns below the level, short the rebound, targeting 82,500 first, then 82,100.
Ether: The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with support at 2,419 and 2,389 and resistance at 2,437 and 2,465. For buy positions, consider a breakout above 2,437 targeting 2,465, and a buy on a rebound from 2,419 after a false breakdown, with an intermediate target at 2,437 and a final target at 2,465. For sell positions, a confirmed break below 2,419 targets 2,389, and a short on a rebound from 2,437 after an unconfirmed upside breakout targets 2,419 first, then 2,389. We use both indicators as filters to weed out false moves rather than as standalone entry signals, and we take decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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