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During Wednesday morning's European trading session, the GBP/USD pair is attracting buyers, moving away from the two-month low at 1.3200. Spot prices moved above 1.3265 following the release of the final UK GDP data; however, further upside may be limited, as traders may prefer to wait for important US macroeconomic data.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026. This figure was revised upward from the initial estimate of 0.4%. The data strengthened expectations of a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate hike at the November 5 meeting, providing moderate support for the British pound.
At the same time, the US dollar is under pressure due to declining US government bond yields, which is also supporting the GBP/USD pair. US Treasury yields fell from multi-year highs to a three-week low amid declining crude oil prices and "dovish" comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who said that the US central bank should not rush to make its next decisions.
In addition, the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since May 2014, contributing to further profit-taking on the dollar. Nevertheless, expectations of hawkish Fed action could limit a deeper decline in the US currency.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders still assess the probability of another Fed rate hike by the end of the year at more than 90%. In addition, persistent geopolitical uncertainty caused by the conflict between the US and Iran continues to support the dollar as a safe-haven asset, warranting caution when opening aggressive long positions in GBP/USD.
To identify better trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data.
In addition, the final US second-quarter GDP data will be released. These figures, together with speeches by influential members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), could affect dollar dynamics during the North American trading session. Nevertheless, market participants should focus primarily on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. These important macroeconomic data will provide additional clues about the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy, which, in turn, will play a key role in determining the direction of the dollar and GBP/USD.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD retains a bearish bias in the short term, remaining below all major moving averages. Therefore, any further rise is likely to encounter strong resistance at 1.3300. However, a decisive break above this level could trigger a short-covering rally and open the way for further gains.
On the downside, a break below 1.3200 would create conditions for a decline and a retest of the current-year low of around 1.3137, set in June. The next significant level is the psychological 1.3100 level; a break below it could lead to a continuation of the downtrend observed in recent months. At the same time, the oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market.
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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