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I advise beginner traders to trade based on the wave structures that occur most frequently. Anyone who has studied wave analysis, even superficially, knows that impulse structures consist of five waves, while corrective structures consist of three waves. After an impulse structure is completed, a corrective structure begins, and vice versa. Of course, standard structures do not always occur in the real market, but when they do, beginner traders can trade based on them.
At present, we are dealing with a structure that may take a five-wave form. We saw a clear three-wave correction, which can be identified as wave 2 or B. Therefore, after its completion, the formation of a new impulse structure began. The first wave of this structure was quite extended and contains no internal corrective waves. Therefore, a corrective wave may begin soon. However, the unsuccessful attempt to break above 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level, resulted in a rebound of only 50 points. This level may fail to hold today, which would mean that the decline in the instrument will continue. Again, without any clear reasons.
I would also like to remind you that the news background often has a strong impact on the wave structure. At present, based on the news background, it is difficult to believe that the U.S. currency will continue to strengthen. In recent weeks, the wave structure allowed for EUR/USD to rise, but the news pushed the price lower. The news-driven decline has ended, but the U.S. currency continues to strengthen.
News Background
The news background last week was relatively weak, which did not prevent the U.S. currency from remaining in demand. During the first two days of the new week, demand for the U.S. currency has continued to increase. Market participants continue to price in the FOMC's tighter monetary policy stance, which is pulling EUR/USD lower. The most problematic aspect of the current situation is that it is unclear when the market will finish pricing in this particular factor. And when will other factors begin to take effect? Let me remind you that the ECB has already tightened monetary policy twice, but the market has not taken this into account. Therefore, this factor may well be priced in at a later stage. This week, at least four important reports will be released in the United States, in addition to the inflation report for the euro area, which is also significant. Therefore, there are at least five reports, each of which may be ignored if it supports the euro, while being fully priced in if it supports the dollar. At present, the 1.1365 level is barely holding the price, but I still do not see any willingness in the market to buy the euro.
Based on all of the above, I expect a corrective scenario and will use 1.1365 as the key level. As long as the price remains above it, I expect at least a corrective wave to form. However, it appears that very strong news may be needed to support the European currency before it begins to appreciate. The current downward structure will eventually be completed, but for now, it is becoming increasingly extended.
General Conclusions
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a downward trend segment that may take either a three-wave or five-wave form. After a decline of 280 points, it is reasonable to expect a corrective wave to form. An unsuccessful attempt to break below 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level, would indicate that the market is ready to take partial profits on short positions, which could lead to a rise in the instrument toward 1.1420 and 1.1470, corresponding to the 161.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci levels, respectively. A break below 1.1365 would indicate that the market is ready for a decline toward 1.1274.
The Main Principles of My Analysis:
*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.
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